Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

$88.12

-1.10 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 85.50 | 88.12 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,69816,70514,60817,20223,06326,114.8629,570.5633,483.5437,914.3242,931.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,4215,1103,8934,7827,4017,688.628,706.039,858.0811,162.5712,639.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,0144,6533,5304,4067,0077,067.938,003.219,062.2510,261.4311,619.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 407457363376394620.69702.83795.83901.141,020.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7,2764,0303,6185,7385,4598,117.639,191.8110,408.1311,785.4113,344.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,3952,4622,7373,1254,9534,669.945,287.905,987.636,779.967,677.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,9303,7213,4743,9044,3095,607.886,349.967,190.238,141.699,219.05
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9459969581,1241,4721,664.371,884.622,1342,416.392,736.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -345-622-441-422-668-754.16-853.95-966.95-1,094.91-1,239.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 88.12
Beta 1.532
Diluted Shares Outstanding 919
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.056
Total Debt 5,753
Total Equity 80,982.28
Total Capital 86,735.28
Debt Weighting 6.63
Equity Weighting 93.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,69816,70514,60817,20223,06326,114.8629,570.5633,483.5437,914.3242,931.41
EBITDA 4,4215,1103,8934,7827,4017,688.628,706.039,858.0811,162.5712,639.68
EBIT 4,0144,6533,5304,4067,0077,067.938,003.219,062.2510,261.4311,619.29
Tax Rate 7.78%30.89%17.22%13.13%13.04%16.41%16.41%16.41%16.41%16.41%
EBIAT 3,701.593,215.612,922.053,827.496,093.225,907.836,689.597,574.808,577.169,712.14
Depreciation 407457363376394620.69702.83795.83901.141,020.38
Accounts Receivable --67-275-388-1,828283.06-617.96-699.73-792.33-897.17
Inventories --791247-430-405-1,298.88-742.07-840.27-951.46-1,077.37
Accounts Payable -51-38166348192.37220.24249.39282.39319.75
Capital Expenditure -345-622-441-422-668-754.16-853.95-966.95-1,094.91-1,239.79
UFCF 3,763.592,243.612,778.053,129.493,934.224,950.915,398.676,113.066,921.997,837.95
WACC
PV UFCF 4,478.034,416.634,523.404,632.754,744.74
SUM PV UFCF 22,795.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,994.71
Terminal Value 93,396.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 56,537.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 79,333.36
Net Debt 758
Equity Value 78,575.36
Shares Outstanding 919
Equity Value Per Share 85.50