Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ambow Education Holding Ltd. (AMBO)

$0.3096

+0.00 (+0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.07 | 0.3096 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 71.0385.0493.4385.1279.5082.3085.2088.2191.3194.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.6011.97-4.751.061.044.824.995.175.355.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.977.76-13.92-9.86-7.54-2.34-2.42-2.51-2.60-2.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.634.219.1810.928.587.167.417.687.958.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 66.6252.5839.3745.0728.0347.0748.7350.4552.2354.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 17.4423.6718.0118.1318.8219.2019.8820.5821.3022.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.752.172.353.114.713.283.403.523.643.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.55-3.03-2.71-1.74-3.17-2.88-2.98-3.08-3.19-3.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.3,096
Beta -7.697
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 105.26
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -32.527
Total Debt 42.15
Total Equity 7.22
Total Capital 49.37
Debt Weighting 85.37
Equity Weighting 14.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 71.0385.0493.4385.1279.5082.3085.2088.2191.3194.53
EBITDA 12.6011.97-4.751.061.044.824.995.175.355.54
EBIT 8.977.76-13.92-9.86-7.54-2.34-2.42-2.51-2.60-2.69
Tax Rate 16.34%7.12%-14.21%0.33%105.26%22.97%22.97%22.97%22.97%22.97%
EBIAT 7.517.21-15.90-9.830.40-1.80-1.87-1.93-2-2.07
Depreciation 3.634.219.1810.928.587.167.417.687.958.23
Accounts Receivable --6.235.66-0.12-0.69-0.38-0.68-0.70-0.73-0.75
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.570.180.751.61-1.430.120.120.120.13
Capital Expenditure -3.55-3.03-2.71-1.74-3.17-2.88-2.98-3.08-3.19-3.31
UFCF 7.580.58-3.59-0.016.720.672.012.082.152.23
WACC
PV UFCF 0.702.222.422.632.86
SUM PV UFCF 10.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -4.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2.27
Terminal Value -32.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -42.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -31.43
Net Debt 16.97
Equity Value -48.40
Shares Outstanding 23.33
Equity Value Per Share -2.07