Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)

$7.99

+0.14 (+1.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -75.12 | 7.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,079.205,460.805,4711,242.402,527.902,7422,974.233,226.133,499.363,795.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 479.501,003.80619.20-3,674.30-720.20-1,563.44-1,695.86-1,839.49-1,995.28-2,164.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -59.10466169.20-4,172.60-821.20-1,962.57-2,128.79-2,309.09-2,504.65-2,716.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 538.60537.80450498.30101399.13432.93469.60509.37552.51
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 310313.30265308.301,592572.95621.47674.11731.20793.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 298284.20265.9099168167.51181.70197.09213.78231.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3435.2037.5021.3023.4725.4627.6129.9532.4935.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 569.60452.60543.30298.80377375.09406.86441.31478.69519.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -626.80-576.30-518.10-173.80-92-274.16-297.38-322.56-349.88-379.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.99
Beta 1.781
Diluted Shares Outstanding 477.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.152
Total Debt 5,873
Total Equity 3,814.51
Total Capital 9,687.51
Debt Weighting 60.62
Equity Weighting 39.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,079.205,460.805,4711,242.402,527.902,7422,974.233,226.133,499.363,795.74
EBITDA 479.501,003.80619.20-3,674.30-720.20-1,563.44-1,695.86-1,839.49-1,995.28-2,164.27
EBIT -59.10466169.20-4,172.60-821.20-1,962.57-2,128.79-2,309.09-2,504.65-2,716.78
Tax Rate -46.26%10.99%13.11%-1.32%0.85%-4.53%-4.53%-4.53%-4.53%-4.53%
EBIAT -86.44414.77147.01-4,227.78-814.21-2,051.39-2,225.13-2,413.58-2,618-2,839.73
Depreciation 538.60537.80450498.30101399.13432.93469.60509.37552.51
Accounts Receivable -13.8018.30166.90-690.49-14.19-15.39-16.69-18.11
Inventories --1.20-2.3016.20-2.17-1.99-2.16-2.34-2.54-2.75
Accounts Payable --11790.70-244.5078.20-1.9131.7734.4637.3840.54
Capital Expenditure -626.80-576.30-518.10-173.80-92-274.16-297.38-322.56-349.88-379.52
UFCF -174.64271.87185.61-3,964.68-798.18-1,929.83-2,074.15-2,249.82-2,440.36-2,647.05
WACC
PV UFCF -1,762.88-1,730.81-1,714.99-1,699.31-1,683.78
SUM PV UFCF -8,591.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,699.99
Terminal Value -36,144.42
Present Value of Terminal Value -22,991.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -31,583.19
Net Debt 4,281
Equity Value -35,864.19
Shares Outstanding 477.41
Equity Value Per Share -75.12