Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

$226.645

-0.22 (-0.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 413.57 | 226.645 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,84923,74723,36225,42425,97926,843.9827,737.7628,661.3029,615.5930,601.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12,85612,88312,63312,99611,29613,915.3514,378.6714,857.4115,352.1015,863.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 10,90110,93710,4279,3957,89811,046.4211,414.2211,794.2612,186.9512,592.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,9551,9462,2063,6013,3982,868.932,964.453,063.163,165.153,270.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 41,67829,3048,91110,6478,03722,375.2423,120.2323,890.0324,685.4625,507.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,2373,5804,0574,5254,8954,469.454,618.264,772.034,930.915,095.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,8342,9403,5843,8934,0863,820.723,947.934,079.384,215.204,355.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3521,2071,3711,4211,3661,4881,537.541,588.731,641.631,696.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -664-738-618-608-880-775.14-800.95-827.62-855.17-883.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 226.645
Beta 0.564
Diluted Shares Outstanding 590
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.637
Total Debt 33,309
Total Equity 133,720.55
Total Capital 167,029.55
Debt Weighting 19.94
Equity Weighting 80.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,84923,74723,36225,42425,97926,843.9827,737.7628,661.3029,615.5930,601.66
EBITDA 12,85612,88312,63312,99611,29613,915.3514,378.6714,857.4115,352.1015,863.25
EBIT 10,90110,93710,4279,3957,89811,046.4211,414.2211,794.2612,186.9512,592.72
Tax Rate 79.38%12.06%14.18%10.68%12.06%25.67%25.67%25.67%25.67%25.67%
EBIAT 2,247.909,618.148,948.198,391.166,945.678,210.528,483.898,766.379,058.259,359.84
Depreciation 1,9551,9462,2063,6013,3982,868.932,964.453,063.163,165.153,270.53
Accounts Receivable --343-477-468-370425.55-148.81-153.77-158.89-164.18
Inventories --106-644-309-193265.28-127.21-131.45-135.82-140.35
Accounts Payable --14516450-5512249.5451.1952.9054.66
Capital Expenditure -664-738-618-608-880-775.14-800.95-827.62-855.17-883.65
UFCF 3,538.9010,232.149,579.1910,657.168,845.6711,117.1410,420.9110,767.8811,126.4011,496.86
WACC
PV UFCF 10,493.819,285.089,056.298,833.148,615.48
SUM PV UFCF 46,283.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,726.80
Terminal Value 297,634.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 223,040.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 269,324.15
Net Debt 25,320
Equity Value 244,004.15
Shares Outstanding 590
Equity Value Per Share 413.57