Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Homes 4 Rent (AMH-PF)

$25.14

+0.03 (+0.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 54.79 | 25.14 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 960.401,072.861,143.381,182.841,303.881,408.091,520.621,642.141,773.381,915.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 490.91549.86597.45600.56665.68722.20779.91842.24909.55982.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 193.62231.17268.15257.41303.98310.45335.26362.05390.98422.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 297.29318.69329.29343.15361.70411.75444.66480.20518.57560.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 46.1630.2837.58137.0648.2073.7879.6886.0492.92100.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 30.1429.0329.6277.0641.5951.0855.1759.5764.3469.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.730.205.040.43343.5376.1082.1888.7595.84103.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37.54-54.46-71.48-104.82-52.13-79.13-85.45-92.28-99.65-107.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.14
Beta 0.610
Diluted Shares Outstanding 349.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.529
Total Debt 3,880.48
Total Equity 8,787.23
Total Capital 12,667.71
Debt Weighting 30.63
Equity Weighting 69.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 960.401,072.861,143.381,182.841,303.881,408.091,520.621,642.141,773.381,915.10
EBITDA 490.91549.86597.45600.56665.68722.20779.91842.24909.55982.24
EBIT 193.62231.17268.15257.41303.98310.45335.26362.05390.98422.23
Tax Rate -5.89%3.70%9.74%9.34%10.20%5.42%5.42%5.42%5.42%5.42%
EBIAT 205.03222.61242.03233.38272.99293.63317.09342.44369.80399.36
Depreciation 297.29318.69329.29343.15361.70411.75444.66480.20518.57560.02
Accounts Receivable -1.12-0.59-47.4535.48-9.50-4.08-4.41-4.76-5.14
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.534.84-4.61343.09-267.436.086.577.097.66
Capital Expenditure -37.54-54.47-71.48-104.82-52.13-79.13-85.45-92.28-99.65-107.62
UFCF 464.78486.42504.10419.66961.13349.33678.30732.51791.05854.27
WACC
PV UFCF 331.62611.28626.66642.44658.61
SUM PV UFCF 2,870.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 871.36
Terminal Value 26,088.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,113.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 22,983.93
Net Debt 3,832.28
Equity Value 19,151.65
Shares Outstanding 349.53
Equity Value Per Share 54.79