Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
American Well Corporation (AMWL)
$1.3
+0.03 (+2.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 113.95 | 148.86 | 245.26 | 252.79 | 277.19 | 352.11 | 447.28 | 568.17 | 721.74 | 916.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -49.78 | -86.94 | -217.28 | -163.06 | -249.69 | -243.14 | -308.85 | -392.33 | -498.37 | -633.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -55.11 | -94.70 | -227.43 | -179.15 | -275.85 | -264.15 | -335.54 | -426.23 | -541.44 | -687.78 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.33 | 7.76 | 10.15 | 16.09 | 26.17 | 21.01 | 26.69 | 33.90 | 43.07 | 54.71 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 256.20 | 177.63 | 1,041.58 | 746.42 | 538.55 | 886.18 | 1,125.70 | 1,429.96 | 1,816.46 | 2,307.42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 30.78 | 32.73 | 45.30 | 51.38 | 58.37 | 76.65 | 97.37 | 123.69 | 157.12 | 199.58 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.51 | 3.10 | 9.13 | 7.53 | 8.74 | 9.96 | 12.65 | 16.07 | 20.41 | 25.93 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.23 | 6.50 | 5.80 | 12.16 | 7.24 | 12.58 | 15.98 | 20.30 | 25.78 | 32.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.91 | -1.34 | -3.32 | -0.56 | -10.45 | -5.58 | -7.08 | -9 | -11.43 | -14.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.901 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 274.25 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 41.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.409 |
| Total Debt | 14.84 |
| Total Equity | 356.52 |
| Total Capital | 371.37 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 113.95 | 148.86 | 245.26 | 252.79 | 277.19 | 352.11 | 447.28 | 568.17 | 721.74 | 916.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -49.78 | -86.94 | -217.28 | -163.06 | -249.69 | -243.14 | -308.85 | -392.33 | -498.37 | -633.08 |
| EBIT | -55.11 | -94.70 | -227.43 | -179.15 | -275.85 | -264.15 | -335.54 | -426.23 | -541.44 | -687.78 |
| Tax Rate | -0.69% | 0.90% | -0.28% | 3.00% | -0.02% | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.58% |
| EBIAT | -55.49 | -93.85 | -228.07 | -173.77 | -275.92 | -262.61 | -333.59 | -423.76 | -538.29 | -683.79 |
| Depreciation | 5.33 | 7.76 | 10.15 | 16.09 | 26.17 | 21.01 | 26.69 | 33.90 | 43.07 | 54.71 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.95 | -12.57 | -6.08 | -7 | -18.28 | -20.72 | -26.32 | -33.43 | -42.47 |
| Inventories | - | -0.59 | -6.02 | 1.60 | -1.21 | -1.22 | -2.69 | -3.42 | -4.34 | -5.52 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.28 | -0.71 | 6.36 | -4.92 | 5.34 | 3.40 | 4.32 | 5.49 | 6.97 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.91 | -1.34 | -3.32 | -0.56 | -10.45 | -5.58 | -7.08 | -9 | -11.43 | -14.52 |
| UFCF | -52.07 | -87.69 | -240.54 | -156.36 | -273.32 | -261.34 | -334 | -424.27 | -538.95 | -684.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -238.19 | -277.44 | -321.21 | -371.88 | -430.54 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,639.26 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -698.31 |
| Terminal Value | -9,045.44 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5,688.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -7,327.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -523.70 |
| Equity Value | -6,804.10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 274.25 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -24.81 |