Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aon plc (AON)
$313.8
+1.77 (+0.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 10,770 | 11,013 | 11,066 | 12,193 | 12,479 | 12,955.31 | 13,449.79 | 13,963.15 | 14,496.11 | 15,049.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,327 | 2,700 | 3,164 | 2,526 | 3,769 | 3,255.27 | 3,379.51 | 3,508.51 | 3,642.42 | 3,781.45 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,558 | 2,136 | 2,751 | 2,200 | 3,505 | 2,716.77 | 2,820.47 | 2,928.12 | 3,039.88 | 3,155.91 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 769 | 564 | 413 | 326 | 264 | 538.49 | 559.05 | 580.39 | 602.54 | 625.54 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10,994 | 12,762 | 1,192 | 836 | 1,142 | 6,341.38 | 6,583.42 | 6,834.70 | 7,095.57 | 7,366.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2,885 | 3,204 | 3,165 | 3,147 | 3,035 | 3,487.88 | 3,621.01 | 3,759.22 | 3,902.70 | 4,051.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,943 | 1,939 | 2,016 | 2,192 | 2,241.32 | 2,326.86 | 2,415.68 | 2,507.88 | 2,603.60 | 2,702.98 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -240 | -225 | -141 | -137 | -196 | -213.50 | -221.65 | -230.11 | -238.89 | -248.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 313.8 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.890 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 213.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.893 |
| Total Debt | 11,463 |
| Total Equity | 66,902.16 |
| Total Capital | 78,365.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 10,770 | 11,013 | 11,066 | 12,193 | 12,479 | 12,955.31 | 13,449.79 | 13,963.15 | 14,496.11 | 15,049.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,327 | 2,700 | 3,164 | 2,526 | 3,769 | 3,255.27 | 3,379.51 | 3,508.51 | 3,642.42 | 3,781.45 |
| EBIT | 1,558 | 2,136 | 2,751 | 2,200 | 3,505 | 2,716.77 | 2,820.47 | 2,928.12 | 3,039.88 | 3,155.91 |
| Tax Rate | 8.99% | 18.12% | 20.12% | 35.01% | 17.97% | 20.04% | 20.04% | 20.04% | 20.04% | 20.04% |
| EBIAT | 1,417.96 | 1,748.99 | 2,197.45 | 1,429.83 | 2,875.30 | 2,172.31 | 2,255.23 | 2,341.31 | 2,430.67 | 2,523.45 |
| Depreciation | 769 | 564 | 413 | 326 | 264 | 538.49 | 559.05 | 580.39 | 602.54 | 625.54 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -319 | 39 | 18 | 112 | -452.88 | -133.13 | -138.21 | -143.48 | -148.96 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4 | 77 | 176 | 49.32 | 85.55 | 88.81 | 92.20 | 95.72 | 99.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -240 | -225 | -141 | -137 | -196 | -213.50 | -221.65 | -230.11 | -238.89 | -248.01 |
| UFCF | 1,946.96 | 1,764.99 | 2,585.45 | 1,812.83 | 3,104.62 | 2,129.98 | 2,548.31 | 2,645.58 | 2,746.56 | 2,851.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,987.66 | 2,219.15 | 2,149.92 | 2,082.85 | 2,017.87 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 10,457.46 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,908.42 |
| Terminal Value | 56,364.71 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 39,888.14 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 50,345.59 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10,773 |
| Equity Value | 39,572.59 |
| Shares Outstanding | 213.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 185.61 |