Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limit... (AOSL)

$31.17

-1.34 (-4.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.19 | 31.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 421.55450.92464.91656.90777.55913.101,072.281,259.221,478.741,736.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 45.2142.0642.81118.59539.19213.04250.18293.80345.02405.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15.7910.02-2.2865.90496.34144.90170.16199.83234.66275.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 29.4232.0445.0952.6842.8568.1480.0293.97110.35129.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 131.53121.89158.54202.41314.35298.72350.80411.96483.77568.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 52.0355.4414.9839.6065.6877.3190.79106.62125.21147.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 90.18111.64135.53154.29158.04217.53255.45299.99352.28413.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 92.6694.3886.1880.7087.38155.18182.23214251.30295.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -194.13-112.46-62.40-72.70-138.01-206.78-242.83-285.16-334.87-393.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.17
Beta 2.492
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.458
Total Debt 98.77
Total Equity 879.09
Total Capital 977.86
Debt Weighting 10.10
Equity Weighting 89.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 421.55450.92464.91656.90777.55913.101,072.281,259.221,478.741,736.52
EBITDA 45.2142.0642.81118.59539.19213.04250.18293.80345.02405.16
EBIT 15.7910.02-2.2865.90496.34144.90170.16199.83234.66275.57
Tax Rate -152.17%113.91%63.17%3.50%8.46%7.37%7.37%7.37%7.37%7.37%
EBIAT 39.82-1.39-0.8463.60454.33134.22157.62185.09217.36255.25
Depreciation 29.4232.0445.0952.6842.8568.1480.0293.97110.35129.59
Accounts Receivable --3.4240.46-24.62-26.08-11.63-13.48-15.83-18.59-21.83
Inventories --21.46-23.88-18.76-3.75-59.49-37.92-44.53-52.30-61.41
Accounts Payable -1.72-8.20-5.486.6867.8027.0531.7737.3143.81
Capital Expenditure -194.13-112.46-62.40-72.70-138.01-206.78-242.83-285.16-334.87-393.25
UFCF -124.89-104.97-9.77-5.29336.02-7.75-29.54-34.69-40.74-47.84
WACC
PV UFCF -6.78-22.63-23.26-23.90-24.56
SUM PV UFCF -101.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) -48.80
Terminal Value -398.01
Present Value of Terminal Value -204.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -305.50
Net Debt -215.58
Equity Value -89.92
Shares Outstanding 28.20
Equity Value Per Share -3.19