Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT)

$7.26

-0.25 (-3.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -455.74 | 7.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 177.36167.38276.69247.53288.07335.25390.16454.07528.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16.20-79.2544.42-38.24-27.09-31.52-36.69-42.69-49.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -8.79-102.8924.59-55.21-57.50-66.92-77.88-90.64-105.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 24.9923.6419.8316.9730.4235.4041.1947.9455.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 0.160.2360.8019.5221.6725.2229.3534.1639.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 27.0235.2042.4130.1145.9253.4462.1972.3884.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 60.946074.30121.68105.30122.55142.62165.98193.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.918.9416.0213.5615.5818.1321.1024.5628.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.75-1.86-4.18-6.59-4.92-5.73-6.67-7.76-9.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.26
Beta 0.207
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.613
Total Debt 49.58
Total Equity 101.13
Total Capital 150.71
Debt Weighting 32.90
Equity Weighting 67.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 177.36167.38276.69247.53288.07335.25390.16454.07528.44
EBITDA 16.20-79.2544.42-38.24-27.09-31.52-36.69-42.69-49.69
EBIT -8.79-102.8924.59-55.21-57.50-66.92-77.88-90.64-105.48
Tax Rate -8.35%10.80%24.23%-16.83%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%2.47%
EBIAT -9.52-91.7718.63-64.50-56.08-65.27-75.96-88.40-102.88
Depreciation 24.9923.6419.8316.9730.4235.4041.1947.9455.79
Accounts Receivable --8.18-7.2112.30-15.81-7.52-8.75-10.19-11.85
Inventories -0.94-14.30-47.3916.38-17.25-20.07-23.36-27.19
Accounts Payable -0.027.08-2.462.022.552.973.464.02
Capital Expenditure -2.75-1.86-4.18-6.59-4.92-5.73-6.67-7.76-9.03
UFCF 12.72-77.2119.86-91.67-28-57.82-67.29-78.31-91.14
WACC
PV UFCF -28-55.97-63.05-71.02-80.01
SUM PV UFCF -288.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) -92.96
Terminal Value -7,096.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,029.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,318.46
Net Debt 30.05
Equity Value -6,348.52
Shares Outstanding 13.93
Equity Value Per Share -455.74