Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Anglo Pacific Group plc (APY.TO)

$2.27

+0.02 (+0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.43 | 2.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37.3846.1055.7334.0185.30118.57164.82229.11318.49442.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.7948.5942.71-19.7577.3860.9284.69117.73163.65227.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12.6445.5938.71-25.4762.2547.4866.0191.76127.55177.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.15345.7315.1213.4418.6825.9736.1050.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8.104.247.414.9621.9920.0427.8638.7353.8374.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.020.030.100.054.631.391.932.693.745.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.13-0-42.29-2.98-207.74-78.55-109.19-151.78-210.99-293.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.27
Beta 0.797
Diluted Shares Outstanding 207.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.567
Total Debt 112
Total Equity 471.94
Total Capital 583.94
Debt Weighting 19.18
Equity Weighting 80.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37.3846.1055.7334.0185.30118.57164.82229.11318.49442.72
EBITDA 15.7948.5942.71-19.7577.3860.9284.69117.73163.65227.49
EBIT 12.6445.5938.71-25.4762.2547.4866.0191.76127.55177.30
Tax Rate 11.14%35.36%22.96%31.63%31.41%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%
EBIAT 11.2329.4729.82-17.4142.7034.9048.5167.4493.75130.32
Depreciation 3.15345.7315.1213.4418.6825.9736.1050.18
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.020.07-0.064.59-3.240.540.751.051.46
Capital Expenditure -1.13-0-42.29-2.98-207.74-78.55-109.19-151.78-210.99-293.30
UFCF 13.2632.48-8.40-14.73-145.34-33.45-41.45-57.62-80.09-111.34
WACC
PV UFCF -31.26-36.20-47.02-61.08-79.35
SUM PV UFCF -254.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -113.56
Terminal Value -2,266.76
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,615.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,870.32
Net Debt 90.01
Equity Value -1,960.32
Shares Outstanding 207.90
Equity Value Per Share -9.43