Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Argonaut Gold Inc. (AR.TO)
$0.56
+0.02 (+3.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 155.09 | 196.06 | 268.89 | 319.69 | 436.91 | 567.03 | 735.89 | 955.05 | 1,239.47 | 1,608.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 21.05 | -0.53 | -107.84 | 41.97 | 116.08 | 14.63 | 18.98 | 24.63 | 31.97 | 41.49 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 14.63 | 18.98 | 24.63 | 31.97 | 41.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 14.06 | 15.38 | 38.79 | 222.19 | 205.28 | 167.64 | 217.56 | 282.35 | 366.44 | 475.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 19.45 | 23.65 | 22.33 | 28.03 | 32.02 | 55.57 | 72.13 | 93.60 | 121.48 | 157.66 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 68.91 | 68.69 | 55.88 | 69.84 | 101.51 | 164.81 | 213.90 | 277.60 | 360.27 | 467.56 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 14.35 | 22.45 | 24.42 | 30.18 | 62.84 | 60.80 | 78.90 | 102.40 | 132.90 | 172.48 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -111.16 | -36.03 | -51.75 | -63.92 | -252.07 | -212.05 | -275.20 | -357.16 | -463.52 | -601.57 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.56 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.603 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 312.36 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 37.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.59% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.414 |
| Total Debt | 179.59 |
| Total Equity | 174.92 |
| Total Capital | 354.51 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.66 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.34 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 155.09 | 196.06 | 268.89 | 319.69 | 436.91 | 567.03 | 735.89 | 955.05 | 1,239.47 | 1,608.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 21.05 | -0.53 | -107.84 | 41.97 | 116.08 | 14.63 | 18.98 | 24.63 | 31.97 | 41.49 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 14.63 | 18.98 | 24.63 | 31.97 | 41.49 |
| Tax Rate | -13.48% | -689.74% | 14.23% | 67.77% | 37.63% | -116.72% | -116.72% | -116.72% | -116.72% | -116.72% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 31.70 | 41.14 | 53.39 | 69.29 | 89.92 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.20 | 1.31 | -5.70 | -3.99 | -23.56 | -16.55 | -21.48 | -27.88 | -36.18 |
| Inventories | - | 0.22 | 12.80 | -13.95 | -31.68 | -63.30 | -49.08 | -63.70 | -82.67 | -107.29 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.10 | 1.97 | 5.76 | 32.66 | -2.04 | 18.11 | 23.50 | 30.50 | 39.58 |
| Capital Expenditure | -111.16 | -36.03 | -51.75 | -63.92 | -252.07 | -212.05 | -275.20 | -357.16 | -463.52 | -601.57 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -269.25 | -281.59 | -365.45 | -474.29 | -615.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -255.36 | -253.29 | -311.76 | -383.73 | -472.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,676.44 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.44 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -627.85 |
| Terminal Value | -18,251.36 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,004.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -15,680.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -19.65 |
| Equity Value | -15,661.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 312.36 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -50.14 |