Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Argonaut Gold Inc. (AR.TO)

$0.56

+0.02 (+3.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -50.14 | 0.56 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 155.09196.06268.89319.69436.91567.03735.89955.051,239.471,608.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 21.05-0.53-107.8441.97116.0814.6318.9824.6331.9741.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----14.6318.9824.6331.9741.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14.0615.3838.79222.19205.28167.64217.56282.35366.44475.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19.4523.6522.3328.0332.0255.5772.1393.60121.48157.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 68.9168.6955.8869.84101.51164.81213.90277.60360.27467.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 14.3522.4524.4230.1862.8460.8078.90102.40132.90172.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -111.16-36.03-51.75-63.92-252.07-212.05-275.20-357.16-463.52-601.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.56
Beta 1.603
Diluted Shares Outstanding 312.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.414
Total Debt 179.59
Total Equity 174.92
Total Capital 354.51
Debt Weighting 50.66
Equity Weighting 49.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 155.09196.06268.89319.69436.91567.03735.89955.051,239.471,608.60
EBITDA 21.05-0.53-107.8441.97116.0814.6318.9824.6331.9741.49
EBIT -----14.6318.9824.6331.9741.49
Tax Rate -13.48%-689.74%14.23%67.77%37.63%-116.72%-116.72%-116.72%-116.72%-116.72%
EBIAT -----31.7041.1453.3969.2989.92
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --4.201.31-5.70-3.99-23.56-16.55-21.48-27.88-36.18
Inventories -0.2212.80-13.95-31.68-63.30-49.08-63.70-82.67-107.29
Accounts Payable -8.101.975.7632.66-2.0418.1123.5030.5039.58
Capital Expenditure -111.16-36.03-51.75-63.92-252.07-212.05-275.20-357.16-463.52-601.57
UFCF ------269.25-281.59-365.45-474.29-615.54
WACC
PV UFCF -255.36-253.29-311.76-383.73-472.31
SUM PV UFCF -1,676.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) -627.85
Terminal Value -18,251.36
Present Value of Terminal Value -14,004.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -15,680.96
Net Debt -19.65
Equity Value -15,661.31
Shares Outstanding 312.36
Equity Value Per Share -50.14