Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ARC Group Worldwide, Inc. (ARCW)

$0.95

+0.05 (+5.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.08 | 0.95 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 103.8499.0782.4479.8348.5340.7934.2928.8224.2320.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11.751.110.63-10.754.250.690.580.490.410.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.22-8.82-9.59-20.90-1.87-3.95-3.32-2.79-2.35-1.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.539.9310.2210.156.114.643.903.282.762.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 3.620.590.370.263.941.060.890.750.630.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 14.9110.4911.2510.655.885.224.393.693.102.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.6114.3712.3311.905.535.934.994.193.522.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.298.6811.7010.722.804.173.512.952.482.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.63-6.64-5.14-1.92-1.20-1.66-1.40-1.17-0.99-0.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.95
Beta 0.864
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 11.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.881
Total Debt 32.33
Total Equity 22.19
Total Capital 54.52
Debt Weighting 59.30
Equity Weighting 40.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 103.8499.0782.4479.8348.5340.7934.2928.8224.2320.37
EBITDA 11.751.110.63-10.754.250.690.580.490.410.35
EBIT 2.22-8.82-9.59-20.90-1.87-3.95-3.32-2.79-2.35-1.97
Tax Rate -8.89%39.31%-1.86%-18.92%-1.13%1.70%1.70%1.70%1.70%1.70%
EBIAT 2.42-5.35-9.77-24.86-1.89-3.88-3.27-2.74-2.31-1.94
Depreciation 9.539.9310.2210.156.114.643.903.282.762.32
Accounts Receivable -4.43-0.760.604.770.650.830.700.590.49
Inventories -3.242.040.426.37-0.400.950.790.670.56
Accounts Payable --0.603.02-0.98-7.921.37-0.66-0.56-0.47-0.39
Capital Expenditure -2.63-6.64-5.14-1.92-1.20-1.66-1.40-1.17-0.99-0.83
UFCF 9.315-0.39-16.586.250.710.360.300.250.21
WACC
PV UFCF 0.650.300.230.170.13
SUM PV UFCF 1.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) 0.22
Terminal Value 2.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 1.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3.23
Net Debt 28.39
Equity Value -25.15
Shares Outstanding 23.36
Equity Value Per Share -1.08