Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aecon Group Inc. (ARE.TO)

$9.97

-0.06 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -24.05 | 9.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,805.733,266.293,460.423,643.623,977.324,343.354,743.065,179.555,656.216,176.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 148.08194.51203.46242.59207.79251.87275.05300.36328358.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 54.5390.68109.33150.90119.42130.50142.51155.63169.95185.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 93.55103.8394.1391.6988.37121.37132.53144.73158.05172.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 304.88630.98682.26658.27532.68706.75771.79842.81920.381,005.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,103.211,275.271,290.541,341.191,421.681,634.941,785.401,949.702,129.132,325.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2320.7524.9021.3425.1929.4832.1935.1638.3941.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 534.61631.23674.10792.32788.35863.69943.171,029.971,124.761,228.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -169.77-214.57-205.32-139.28-41.62-203.46-222.19-242.63-264.96-289.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.97
Beta 0.912
Diluted Shares Outstanding 73.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.057
Total Debt 779.63
Total Equity 736.24
Total Capital 1,515.88
Debt Weighting 51.43
Equity Weighting 48.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,805.733,266.293,460.423,643.623,977.324,343.354,743.065,179.555,656.216,176.74
EBITDA 148.08194.51203.46242.59207.79251.87275.05300.36328358.19
EBIT 54.5390.68109.33150.90119.42130.50142.51155.63169.95185.59
Tax Rate 8.60%11.95%16.04%28.99%32.67%19.65%19.65%19.65%19.65%19.65%
EBIAT 49.8479.8491.79107.1680.41104.86114.51125.05136.55149.12
Depreciation 93.55103.8394.1391.6988.37121.37132.53144.73158.05172.60
Accounts Receivable --172.06-15.27-50.66-80.48-213.26-150.46-164.31-179.43-195.94
Inventories -2.25-4.153.56-3.85-4.28-2.71-2.96-3.24-3.53
Accounts Payable -96.6242.87118.22-3.9775.3479.4886.8094.79103.51
Capital Expenditure -169.77-214.57-205.32-139.28-41.62-203.46-222.19-242.63-264.96-289.35
UFCF -26.38-104.094.05130.6938.85-119.44-48.83-53.33-58.23-63.59
WACC
PV UFCF -112.75-43.51-44.85-46.23-47.66
SUM PV UFCF -295

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -64.87
Terminal Value -1,646.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,233.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,528.73
Net Debt 246.95
Equity Value -1,775.68
Shares Outstanding 73.85
Equity Value Per Share -24.05