Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

argenx SE (ARGX.BR)

368.5 €

+2.50 (+0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -515,428.96 | 368.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 43.6924.5778.1744.80497.281,916.557,386.5528,468.40109,719.73422,869.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -32.25-73.19-174.66-641.17-391.48-8,068.56-31,096.95-119,850.38-461,913.86-1,780,256.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -32.77-73.75-177.09-645.39-397.35-8,134.44-31,350.86-120,828.96-465,685.39-1,794,792.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.520.562.434.225.8765.88253.91978.583,771.5314,535.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 431.62645.811,496.352,001.092,336.7340,120.52154,628.01595,949.882,296,843.088,852,234.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.603.6531.797.4638.22337.591,301.085,014.4919,326.3074,485.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---25.25109.08750.352,891.9311,145.7442,956.66165,558.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.346.8710.48206.80208.852,249.868,671.1533,419.36128,801.12496,410.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.78-46.76-5.48-121.43-385.66-1,486.38-5,728.65-22,078.71-85,093.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 368.5
Beta 0.793
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 20.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.548
Total Debt 11.46
Total Equity 16,733.75
Total Capital 16,745.21
Debt Weighting 0.07
Equity Weighting 99.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 43.6924.5778.1744.80497.281,916.557,386.5528,468.40109,719.73422,869.44
EBITDA -32.25-73.19-174.66-641.17-391.48-8,068.56-31,096.95-119,850.38-461,913.86-1,780,256.49
EBIT -32.77-73.75-177.09-645.39-397.35-8,134.44-31,350.86-120,828.96-465,685.39-1,794,792.29
Tax Rate -2.17%-1.21%-3.00%-0.53%-2.13%-1.81%-1.81%-1.81%-1.81%-1.81%
EBIAT -33.48-74.64-182.41-648.80-405.82-8,281.56-31,917.87-123,014.26-474,107.72-1,827,252.71
Depreciation 0.520.562.434.225.8765.88253.91978.583,771.5314,535.80
Accounts Receivable --0.05-28.1424.33-30.76-299.36-963.50-3,713.41-14,311.80-55,158.95
Inventories -----83.82-641.28-2,141.57-8,253.81-31,810.92-122,602.08
Accounts Payable --11.473.61196.322.052,041.016,421.2924,748.2195,381.77367,609.70
Capital Expenditure -0.42-0.78-46.76-5.48-121.43-385.66-1,486.38-5,728.65-22,078.71-85,093.29
UFCF -33.38-86.37-251.27-429.41-633.93-7,500.98-29,834.13-114,983.34-443,155.86-1,707,961.53
WACC
PV UFCF -6,973.76-25,787.65-92,402.25-331,095.54-1,186,380.82
SUM PV UFCF -1,642,640.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,742,120.76
Terminal Value -31,333,107.24
Present Value of Terminal Value -21,764,540.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -23,407,180.25
Net Debt -1,323.21
Equity Value -23,405,857.04
Shares Outstanding 45.41
Equity Value Per Share -515,428.96