Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arezzo Indústria e Comércio S.A. (ARZZ3.SA)
$78.56
+0.97 (+1.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,526.66 | 1,679.23 | 1,590.99 | 2,923.83 | 4,233.73 | 5,644.76 | 7,526.07 | 10,034.40 | 13,378.71 | 17,837.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 219.33 | 297.19 | 159.15 | 551.72 | 703.44 | 875.53 | 1,167.33 | 1,556.38 | 2,075.10 | 2,766.70 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 178.45 | 216.86 | 78.05 | 445.97 | 537.41 | 648.64 | 864.83 | 1,153.06 | 1,537.35 | 2,049.73 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 40.88 | 80.32 | 81.10 | 105.75 | 166.03 | 226.89 | 302.50 | 403.33 | 537.75 | 716.97 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 235.80 | 277.68 | 561.16 | 262.56 | 476.43 | 987.68 | 1,316.86 | 1,755.75 | 2,340.91 | 3,121.10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 146.36 | 173.87 | 283.01 | 436.52 | 743.86 | 792.85 | 1,057.10 | 1,409.41 | 1,879.15 | 2,505.44 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 110.12 | 134.97 | 399.19 | 574.71 | 671.66 | 856.45 | 1,141.89 | 1,522.46 | 2,029.87 | 2,706.39 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -48.61 | -65.61 | -46.19 | -168.88 | -233.14 | -240.21 | -320.27 | -427 | -569.32 | -759.06 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 78.56 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.724 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 91.64 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 10.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.21% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.203 |
Total Debt | 776.41 |
Total Equity | 7,199.32 |
Total Capital | 7,975.73 |
Debt Weighting | 9.73 |
Equity Weighting | 90.27 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,526.66 | 1,679.23 | 1,590.99 | 2,923.83 | 4,233.73 | 5,644.76 | 7,526.07 | 10,034.40 | 13,378.71 | 17,837.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 219.33 | 297.19 | 159.15 | 551.72 | 703.44 | 875.53 | 1,167.33 | 1,556.38 | 2,075.10 | 2,766.70 |
EBIT | 178.45 | 216.86 | 78.05 | 445.97 | 537.41 | 648.64 | 864.83 | 1,153.06 | 1,537.35 | 2,049.73 |
Tax Rate | 16.09% | 20.88% | 10.95% | 14.52% | 10.19% | 14.52% | 14.52% | 14.52% | 14.52% | 14.52% |
EBIAT | 149.73 | 171.58 | 69.50 | 381.24 | 482.68 | 554.43 | 739.22 | 985.59 | 1,314.07 | 1,752.03 |
Depreciation | 40.88 | 80.32 | 81.10 | 105.75 | 166.03 | 226.89 | 302.50 | 403.33 | 537.75 | 716.97 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | -27.51 | -109.14 | -153.51 | -307.34 | -48.99 | -264.25 | -352.31 | -469.74 | -626.29 |
Accounts Payable | - | 24.85 | 264.22 | 175.52 | 96.95 | 184.78 | 285.44 | 380.57 | 507.41 | 676.52 |
Capital Expenditure | -48.61 | -65.61 | -46.19 | -168.88 | -233.14 | -240.21 | -320.27 | -427 | -569.32 | -759.06 |
UFCF | 142 | 183.64 | 259.50 | 340.12 | 205.17 | 676.91 | 742.65 | 990.17 | 1,320.17 | 1,760.17 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 631.44 | 646.24 | 803.76 | 999.66 | 1,243.31 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,324.41 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.20 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,795.37 |
Terminal Value | 34,526.36 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 24,388.04 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 28,712.45 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 747.58 |
Equity Value | 27,964.87 |
Shares Outstanding | 91.64 |
Equity Value Per Share | 305.16 |