Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ascencio SCA (ASC.BR)
54.9 €
+0.40 (+0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 47.50 | 47.84 | 51.40 | 46.28 | 48.53 | 48.90 | 49.27 | 49.65 | 50.03 | 50.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 37.20 | 23.67 | 12.91 | 52.06 | 101.26 | 46.36 | 46.71 | 47.07 | 47.43 | 47.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 37.14 | 23.61 | 12.84 | 51.98 | 101.22 | 46.30 | 46.65 | 47 | 47.36 | 47.72 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.03 | 4.65 | 4.71 | 3.71 | 5.24 | 4.52 | 4.55 | 4.58 | 4.62 | 4.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.65 | 5.99 | 6.45 | 5.70 | 5.98 | 6.02 | 6.07 | 6.11 | 6.16 | 6.21 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.33 | -3.98 | -87.25 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -17.70 | -17.84 | -17.97 | -18.11 | -18.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 54.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.544 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.66% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.089 |
| Total Debt | 326.71 |
| Total Equity | 362.12 |
| Total Capital | 688.83 |
| Debt Weighting | 47.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 52.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 47.50 | 47.84 | 51.40 | 46.28 | 48.53 | 48.90 | 49.27 | 49.65 | 50.03 | 50.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 37.20 | 23.67 | 12.91 | 52.06 | 101.26 | 46.36 | 46.71 | 47.07 | 47.43 | 47.79 |
| EBIT | 37.14 | 23.61 | 12.84 | 51.98 | 101.22 | 46.30 | 46.65 | 47 | 47.36 | 47.72 |
| Tax Rate | 1.52% | -1.13% | 4.32% | 0.96% | 5.13% | 2.16% | 2.16% | 2.16% | 2.16% | 2.16% |
| EBIAT | 36.58 | 23.87 | 12.28 | 51.48 | 96.04 | 45.30 | 45.64 | 45.99 | 46.34 | 46.69 |
| Depreciation | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.34 | 0.46 | -0.75 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.33 | -3.98 | -87.25 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -17.70 | -17.84 | -17.97 | -18.11 | -18.25 |
| UFCF | 35.31 | 20.30 | -74.43 | 50.79 | 96.30 | 27.70 | 27.92 | 28.13 | 28.34 | 28.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 26.64 | 25.81 | 25.01 | 24.24 | 23.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 125.19 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 29.13 |
| Terminal Value | 1,463.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,203.73 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,328.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 322.36 |
| Equity Value | 1,006.56 |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 152.60 |