Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ashland Inc. (ASH)

$94.97

+0.99 (+1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 61.70 | 94.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2603,7432,4932,3262,1111,928.811,762.351,610.251,471.281,344.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 541571954-185495330.26301.76275.71251.92230.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 240259665-432251132.21120.80110.38100.8592.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 301312289247244198.05180.95165.34151.07138.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 566294232454210246.85225.54206.08188.29172.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 612681481471369362.58331.29302.70276.57252.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 634663597529473409.90374.52342.20312.67285.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 409483313233236228.38208.67190.66174.20159.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -199-185-154-138-105-108.52-99.15-90.60-82.78-75.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 94.97
Beta 1.013
Diluted Shares Outstanding 61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -62.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.584
Total Debt 2,103
Total Equity 5,793.17
Total Capital 7,896.17
Debt Weighting 26.63
Equity Weighting 73.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2603,7432,4932,3262,1111,928.811,762.351,610.251,471.281,344.30
EBITDA 541571954-185495330.26301.76275.71251.92230.18
EBIT 240259665-432251132.21120.80110.38100.8592.15
Tax Rate 101.02%0.00%-621.43%-0.99%-62.96%-116.87%-116.87%-116.87%-116.87%-116.87%
EBIAT -2.452594,797.50-436.29409.04286.74261.99239.38218.72199.84
Depreciation 301312289247244198.05180.95165.34151.07138.03
Accounts Receivable --69200101026.4231.2928.5926.1223.87
Inventories --2966685663.1035.3832.3229.5326.98
Accounts Payable -74-170-803-7.62-19.71-18.01-16.45-15.03
Capital Expenditure -199-185-154-138-105-108.52-99.15-90.60-82.78-75.63
UFCF 99.553625,028.50-329.29709.04438.16390.75357.03326.21298.06
WACC
PV UFCF 408.85340.21290.06247.29210.83
SUM PV UFCF 1,497.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 304.02
Terminal Value 5,880.48
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,159.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,656.80
Net Debt 1,893
Equity Value 3,763.80
Shares Outstanding 61
Equity Value Per Share 61.70