Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-B.TO)

$49.67

+0.78 (+1.60%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 34.77 | 49.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	37,904.50	51,394.40	59,117.60	54,132.40	45,760.10	48,816.59	52,077.23	55,555.66	59,266.42	63,225.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,373.20	2,893.10	3,556.80	4,570	5,053.30	3,650.70	3,894.54	4,154.67	4,432.18	4,728.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,718.30	2,014.30	2,517.70	3,226.20	3,689.70	2,610.16	2,784.50	2,970.48	3,168.89	3,380.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	654.90	878.80	1,039.10	1,343.80	1,363.60	1,040.54	1,110.04	1,184.19	1,263.29	1,347.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	645.20	668	706.40	3,680.10	3,026.80	1,719.29	1,834.12	1,956.63	2,087.32	2,226.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,596.30	2,240.20	2,027	1,345.40	1,877.30	1,814.69	1,935.90	2,065.21	2,203.15	2,350.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	865.70	1,369	1,467.70	1,237.40	1,767.60	1,325.75	1,414.30	1,508.77	1,609.55	1,717.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,665.70	2,461.60	2,550.10	1,507.60	2,577.60	2,139.69	2,282.60	2,435.07	2,597.72	2,771.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-994.10	-1,169.30	-1,145.10	-1,408.20	-1,222.20	-1,182.05	-1,261	-1,345.23	-1,435.08	-1,530.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 49.67
Beta	0.889
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,123.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.851
Total Debt	6,809.30
Total Equity	55,794.31
Total Capital	62,603.61
Debt Weighting	10.88
Equity Weighting	89.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	37,904.50	51,394.40	59,117.60	54,132.40	45,760.10	48,816.59	52,077.23	55,555.66	59,266.42	63,225.05
EBITDA	2,373.20	2,893.10	3,556.80	4,570	5,053.30	3,650.70	3,894.54	4,154.67	4,432.18	4,728.22
EBIT	1,718.30	2,014.30	2,517.70	3,226.20	3,689.70	2,610.16	2,784.50	2,970.48	3,168.89	3,380.56
Tax Rate	24.07%	3.69%	16.34%	18.94%	19.46%	16.50%	16.50%	16.50%	16.50%	16.50%
EBIAT	1,304.73	1,939.89	2,106.20	2,615.18	2,971.77	2,179.46	2,325.03	2,480.33	2,646	2,822.73
Depreciation	654.90	878.80	1,039.10	1,343.80	1,363.60	1,040.54	1,110.04	1,184.19	1,263.29	1,347.66
Accounts Receivable	-	-643.90	213.20	681.60	-531.90	62.61	-121.21	-129.31	-137.94	-147.16
Inventories	-	-503.30	-98.70	230.30	-530.20	441.85	-88.55	-94.47	-100.78	-107.51
Accounts Payable	-	795.90	88.50	-1,042.50	1,070	-437.91	142.92	152.46	162.65	173.51
Capital Expenditure	-994.10	-1,169.30	-1,145.10	-1,408.20	-1,222.20	-1,182.05	-1,261	-1,345.23	-1,435.08	-1,530.94
UFCF	965.53	1,298.09	2,203.20	2,420.18	3,121.07	2,104.49	2,107.23	2,247.98	2,398.13	2,558.31
WACC
PV UFCF						1,959.12	1,826.17	1,813.58	1,801.07	1,788.66
SUM PV UFCF										9,188.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.42
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,609.47
Terminal Value	48,145.25
Present Value of Terminal Value	33,661.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	42,849.66
Net Debt	3,793.50
Equity Value	39,056.16
Shares Outstanding	1,123.30
Equity Value Per Share	34.77