Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Atrys Health, S.A. (ATRY.MC)
6.46 €
+0.46 (+7.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 4.56 | 6.04 | 7.29 | 14.84 | 31.40 | 52.45 | 87.62 | 146.36 | 244.50 | 408.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1.73 | 1.66 | 1.95 | 3.17 | 4.78 | 13.50 | 22.55 | 37.67 | 62.93 | 105.13 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 4.05 | 6.76 | 11.30 | 18.87 | 31.53 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.18 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.91 | 3.82 | 9.45 | 15.79 | 26.38 | 44.06 | 73.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.03 | 9.41 | 9.91 | 8.77 | 17.60 | 49.66 | 82.96 | 138.58 | 231.51 | 386.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.65 | 1.56 | 2.61 | 4.36 | 7.28 | 12.15 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.63 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 2 | 4.25 | 7.11 | 11.88 | 19.84 | 33.14 | 55.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.59 | -2.45 | -2.29 | -4.80 | -5.29 | -16.36 | -27.34 | -45.67 | -76.29 | -127.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.46 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.327 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.99 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -54.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.16% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.234 |
| Total Debt | 71.46 |
| Total Equity | 200.17 |
| Total Capital | 271.62 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 4.56 | 6.04 | 7.29 | 14.84 | 31.40 | 52.45 | 87.62 | 146.36 | 244.50 | 408.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1.73 | 1.66 | 1.95 | 3.17 | 4.78 | 13.50 | 22.55 | 37.67 | 62.93 | 105.13 |
| EBIT | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 4.05 | 6.76 | 11.30 | 18.87 | 31.53 |
| Tax Rate | 143.57% | 114.98% | 81.17% | 150.71% | -54.00% | 87.29% | 87.29% | 87.29% | 87.29% | 87.29% |
| EBIAT | -0.24 | -0.05 | 0.13 | -0.64 | 1.47 | 0.51 | 0.86 | 1.44 | 2.40 | 4.01 |
| Depreciation | 1.18 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.91 | 3.82 | 9.45 | 15.79 | 26.38 | 44.06 | 73.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.38 | -0.91 | -1.05 | -1.75 | -2.92 | -4.88 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.34 | -0.17 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 2.85 | 4.77 | 7.96 | 13.30 | 22.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.59 | -2.45 | -2.29 | -4.80 | -5.29 | -16.36 | -27.34 | -45.67 | -76.29 | -127.44 |
| UFCF | -0.64 | -0.89 | -1.11 | -2.35 | 1.87 | -4.45 | -6.97 | -11.64 | -19.45 | -32.48 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.25 | -6.36 | -10.15 | -16.19 | -25.83 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -62.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.69 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -33.13 |
| Terminal Value | -1,231.75 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -979.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,042.26 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 53.98 |
| Equity Value | -1,096.24 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.99 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -35.38 |