Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (ATSG)

$23.61

-1.21 (-4.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -239.69 | 23.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,068.20892.351,452.181,570.571,734.282,015.462,342.222,721.963,163.263,676.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 177.99322.24424.79421.64362.44523.09607.90706.46821954.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7.24117.68139.43111.3222.88128.48149.31173.52201.65234.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 170.75204.56285.35310.32339.56394.61458.59532.94619.34719.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 32.7059.3246.2039.7269.5078.3191105.76122.90142.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 109.11147.76162.87153.51205.40240.27279.22324.49377.10438.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22.1733.5437.4040.4149.2055.7064.7375.2387.43101.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 99.73109.84141.09141.43174.24203.21236.16274.44318.94370.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -296.94-292.92-453.50-510.42-504.75-618.57-718.85-835.40-970.84-1,128.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.61
Beta 0.558
Diluted Shares Outstanding 59.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.331
Total Debt 1,362.53
Total Equity 1,414.97
Total Capital 2,777.50
Debt Weighting 49.06
Equity Weighting 50.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,068.20892.351,452.181,570.571,734.282,015.462,342.222,721.963,163.263,676.12
EBITDA 177.99322.24424.79421.64362.44523.09607.90706.46821954.10
EBIT 7.24117.68139.43111.3222.88128.48149.31173.52201.65234.35
Tax Rate 382.97%20.80%14.49%22.41%23.17%92.77%92.77%92.77%92.77%92.77%
EBIAT -20.4993.21119.2386.3717.589.2910.8012.5514.5816.95
Depreciation 170.75204.56285.35310.32339.56394.61458.59532.94619.34719.75
Accounts Receivable --38.64-15.129.36-51.89-34.87-38.95-45.27-52.61-61.14
Inventories --11.37-3.86-3.01-8.79-6.50-9.03-10.50-12.20-14.17
Accounts Payable -10.1231.250.3332.8128.9732.9538.2944.4951.71
Capital Expenditure -296.94-292.92-453.50-510.42-504.75-618.57-718.85-835.40-970.84-1,128.24
UFCF -146.68-35.04-36.64-107.05-175.48-227.06-264.50-307.39-357.22-415.14
WACC
PV UFCF -216.55-240.60-266.67-295.57-327.61
SUM PV UFCF -1,347.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) -423.44
Terminal Value -14,857.66
Present Value of Terminal Value -11,724.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,071.88
Net Debt 1,293.04
Equity Value -14,364.92
Shares Outstanding 59.93
Equity Value Per Share -239.69