Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)

$4.845

-0.14 (-2.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.30 | 4.845 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,803.801,798.501,612.201,5611,815.401,826.611,837.881,849.221,860.641,872.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 211.60-88386.50554.50953.50434.21436.89439.58442.30445.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -215.20-513.555.03185.15523.962.012.022.042.052.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 426.80425.55381.47369.35429.54432.20434.86437.55440.25442.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 162.10105.90167.30665.50552359.08361.30363.53365.77368.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.6024.303.404.20315.1115.2015.3015.3915.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 163.50181133.40152.10167.20169.35170.40171.45172.51173.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 256.40221.30153.90154.20173.10202.67203.93205.18206.45207.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -643.80-446.90-331.70-273.70-384.60-437.78-440.48-443.20-445.93-448.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.845
Beta 1.351
Diluted Shares Outstanding 953.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 61.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.151
Total Debt 772.80
Total Equity 4,621.38
Total Capital 5,394.18
Debt Weighting 14.33
Equity Weighting 85.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,803.801,798.501,612.201,5611,815.401,826.611,837.881,849.221,860.641,872.12
EBITDA 211.60-88386.50554.50953.50434.21436.89439.58442.30445.03
EBIT -215.20-513.555.03185.15523.962.012.022.042.052.06
Tax Rate 38.87%-61.06%27.30%58.46%61.64%25.04%25.04%25.04%25.04%25.04%
EBIAT -131.56-827.143.6676.922011.511.521.531.541.54
Depreciation 426.80425.55381.47369.35429.54432.20434.86437.55440.25442.97
Accounts Receivable -14.3020.90-0.801.20-12.11-0.09-0.09-0.09-0.10
Inventories --17.5047.60-18.70-15.10-2.15-1.05-1.05-1.06-1.06
Accounts Payable --35.10-67.400.3018.9029.571.251.261.271.27
Capital Expenditure -643.80-446.90-331.70-273.70-384.60-437.78-440.48-443.20-445.93-448.69
UFCF -348.56-886.7954.53153.37250.9411.24-3.99-4.01-4.03-4.06
WACC
PV UFCF 10.30-3.35-3.08-2.84-2.62
SUM PV UFCF -1.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.14
Terminal Value -57.99
Present Value of Terminal Value -37.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -39.05
Net Debt 247.80
Equity Value -286.85
Shares Outstanding 953.85
Equity Value Per Share -0.30