Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avantor, Inc. (AVTR)

$20.24

+0.22 (+1.10%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 18.52 | 20.24 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,864.30	6,040.30	6,393.60	7,386	7,512.40	8,002.27	8,524.09	9,079.93	9,672.02	10,302.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	814.60	879.50	765.30	554	1,585.40	1,104.72	1,176.76	1,253.50	1,335.23	1,422.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	410	480.60	369.90	175	1,092.70	602.54	641.83	683.68	728.27	775.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	404.60	398.90	395.40	379	492.70	502.18	534.93	569.81	606.97	646.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	184.70	186.70	286.60	301	372.90	316.28	336.91	358.88	382.28	407.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	931.20	988.80	1,113.30	1,222	1,218.40	1,319.18	1,405.20	1,496.83	1,594.44	1,698.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	671.10	711.20	739.60	872	913.50	940.30	1,001.61	1,066.93	1,136.50	1,210.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	557.40	560.20	678.90	755	758.20	795.63	847.51	902.77	961.64	1,024.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-37.70	-51.60	-61.60	-111	-133.40	-91.85	-97.84	-104.22	-111.02	-118.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.24
Beta	1.334
Diluted Shares Outstanding	679.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.18
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.990
Total Debt	6,287.50
Total Equity	13,751.06
Total Capital	20,038.56
Debt Weighting	31.38
Equity Weighting	68.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,864.30	6,040.30	6,393.60	7,386	7,512.40	8,002.27	8,524.09	9,079.93	9,672.02	10,302.72
EBITDA	814.60	879.50	765.30	554	1,585.40	1,104.72	1,176.76	1,253.50	1,335.23	1,422.30
EBIT	410	480.60	369.90	175	1,092.70	602.54	641.83	683.68	728.27	775.76
Tax Rate	23.64%	6.90%	-87.16%	24.04%	22.18%	-2.08%	-2.08%	-2.08%	-2.08%	-2.08%
EBIAT	313.08	447.46	692.30	132.93	850.31	615.08	655.19	697.91	743.42	791.90
Depreciation	404.60	398.90	395.40	379	492.70	502.18	534.93	569.81	606.97	646.55
Accounts Receivable	-	-57.60	-124.50	-108.70	3.60	-100.78	-86.02	-91.63	-97.61	-103.97
Inventories	-	-40.10	-28.40	-132.40	-41.50	-26.80	-61.32	-65.31	-69.57	-74.11
Accounts Payable	-	2.80	118.70	76.10	3.20	37.43	51.88	55.26	58.87	62.71
Capital Expenditure	-37.70	-51.60	-61.60	-111	-133.40	-91.85	-97.84	-104.22	-111.02	-118.26
UFCF	679.98	699.86	991.90	235.93	1,174.91	935.26	996.82	1,061.82	1,131.06	1,204.81
WACC
PV UFCF						866.86	856.35	845.49	834.76	824.16
SUM PV UFCF										4,227.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,228.91
Terminal Value	20,864.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	14,272.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	18,500.08
Net Debt	5,914.60
Equity Value	12,585.48
Shares Outstanding	679.40
Equity Value Per Share	18.52