Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Avaya Holdings Corp. (AVYA)
$2.1
-0.14 (-6.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 3,272 | 2,887 | 2,887 | 2,873 | 2,973 | 2,886.08 | 2,801.70 | 2,719.79 | 2,640.28 | 2,563.09 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 374 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 649 | 202.61 | 196.69 | 190.94 | 185.35 | 179.93 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 48 | -432 | -432 | -392 | 224 | -199.54 | -193.71 | -188.05 | -182.55 | -177.21 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 326 | 443 | 443 | 423 | 425 | 402.15 | 390.40 | 378.98 | 367.90 | 357.15 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 876 | 700 | 752 | 727 | 498 | 687.59 | 667.49 | 647.98 | 629.03 | 610.64 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 536 | 377 | 501 | 571 | 307 | 444.43 | 431.43 | 418.82 | 406.57 | 394.69 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 96 | 81 | 63 | 54 | 51 | 66.48 | 64.53 | 62.65 | 60.82 | 59.04 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 282 | 266 | 291 | 242 | 295 | 267.01 | 259.20 | 251.62 | 244.27 | 237.13 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -59 | -113 | -113 | -98 | 295 | -18.01 | -17.48 | -16.97 | -16.47 | -15.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.1 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.678 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 84.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 750.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -47.91% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.807 |
Total Debt | 3,013 |
Total Equity | 177.45 |
Total Capital | 3,190.45 |
Debt Weighting | 94.44 |
Equity Weighting | 5.56 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 3,272 | 2,887 | 2,887 | 2,873 | 2,973 | 2,886.08 | 2,801.70 | 2,719.79 | 2,640.28 | 2,563.09 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 374 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 649 | 202.61 | 196.69 | 190.94 | 185.35 | 179.93 |
EBIT | 48 | -432 | -432 | -392 | 224 | -199.54 | -193.71 | -188.05 | -182.55 | -177.21 |
Tax Rate | 8.08% | -0.30% | -0.30% | -10.03% | 750.00% | 149.49% | 149.49% | 149.49% | 149.49% | 149.49% |
EBIAT | 44.12 | -433.29 | -433.29 | -431.33 | -1,456 | 98.75 | 95.87 | 93.06 | 90.34 | 87.70 |
Depreciation | 326 | 443 | 443 | 423 | 425 | 402.15 | 390.40 | 378.98 | 367.90 | 357.15 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 159 | -124 | -70 | 264 | -137.43 | 12.99 | 12.61 | 12.24 | 11.89 |
Inventories | - | 15 | 18 | 9 | 3 | -15.48 | 1.94 | 1.89 | 1.83 | 1.78 |
Accounts Payable | - | -16 | 25 | -49 | 53 | -27.99 | -7.81 | -7.58 | -7.36 | -7.14 |
Capital Expenditure | -59 | -113 | -113 | -98 | 295 | -18.01 | -17.48 | -16.97 | -16.47 | -15.99 |
UFCF | 311.12 | 54.71 | -184.29 | -216.33 | -416 | 302.01 | 475.91 | 462 | 448.49 | 435.38 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 545.53 | 1,552.87 | 2,723.03 | 4,774.97 | 8,373.14 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 17,969.54 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | -44.64 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 444.09 |
Terminal Value | -952.16 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -18,311.75 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -342.21 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,515 |
Equity Value | -2,857.21 |
Shares Outstanding | 84.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | -33.81 |