Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avaya Holdings Corp. (AVYA)

$2.1

-0.14 (-6.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -33.81 | 2.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2722,8872,8872,8732,9732,886.082,801.702,719.792,640.282,563.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 374111131649202.61196.69190.94185.35179.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 48-432-432-392224-199.54-193.71-188.05-182.55-177.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 326443443423425402.15390.40378.98367.90357.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 876700752727498687.59667.49647.98629.03610.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 536377501571307444.43431.43418.82406.57394.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 968163545166.4864.5362.6560.8259.04
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 282266291242295267.01259.20251.62244.27237.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -59-113-113-98295-18.01-17.48-16.97-16.47-15.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.1
Beta 1.678
Diluted Shares Outstanding 84.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 750.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -47.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.807
Total Debt 3,013
Total Equity 177.45
Total Capital 3,190.45
Debt Weighting 94.44
Equity Weighting 5.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2722,8872,8872,8732,9732,886.082,801.702,719.792,640.282,563.09
EBITDA 374111131649202.61196.69190.94185.35179.93
EBIT 48-432-432-392224-199.54-193.71-188.05-182.55-177.21
Tax Rate 8.08%-0.30%-0.30%-10.03%750.00%149.49%149.49%149.49%149.49%149.49%
EBIAT 44.12-433.29-433.29-431.33-1,45698.7595.8793.0690.3487.70
Depreciation 326443443423425402.15390.40378.98367.90357.15
Accounts Receivable -159-124-70264-137.4312.9912.6112.2411.89
Inventories -151893-15.481.941.891.831.78
Accounts Payable --1625-4953-27.99-7.81-7.58-7.36-7.14
Capital Expenditure -59-113-113-98295-18.01-17.48-16.97-16.47-15.99
UFCF 311.1254.71-184.29-216.33-416302.01475.91462448.49435.38
WACC
PV UFCF 545.531,552.872,723.034,774.978,373.14
SUM PV UFCF 17,969.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -44.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 444.09
Terminal Value -952.16
Present Value of Terminal Value -18,311.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -342.21
Net Debt 2,515
Equity Value -2,857.21
Shares Outstanding 84.50
Equity Value Per Share -33.81