Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (AXAS)
$0.178825
+0.12 (+224.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 86.26 | 149.17 | 129.15 | 43.04 | 78.86 | 93.85 | 111.69 | 132.92 | 158.18 | 188.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 45.18 | 107.63 | -0.40 | -138.81 | 6.52 | -35.66 | -42.44 | -50.51 | -60.11 | -71.54 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -35.66 | -42.44 | -50.51 | -60.11 | -71.54 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.62 | 0.87 | 1.59 | 0.53 | 0.97 | 1.15 | 1.37 | 1.63 | 1.94 | 2.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 32.09 | 39.64 | 19.64 | 10.05 | 13.55 | 22.43 | 26.70 | 31.77 | 37.81 | 45 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 45.57 | 39.57 | 19.28 | 6.07 | 4.68 | 21.46 | 25.54 | 30.39 | 36.17 | 43.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -108.24 | -179.51 | -108.67 | -12.56 | -0.89 | -67.62 | -80.47 | -95.77 | -113.97 | -135.64 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.178,825 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.108 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.41 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 16.64% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.360 |
| Total Debt | 215.04 |
| Total Equity | 1.50 |
| Total Capital | 216.55 |
| Debt Weighting | 99.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 86.26 | 149.17 | 129.15 | 43.04 | 78.86 | 93.85 | 111.69 | 132.92 | 158.18 | 188.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 45.18 | 107.63 | -0.40 | -138.81 | 6.52 | -35.66 | -42.44 | -50.51 | -60.11 | -71.54 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -35.66 | -42.44 | -50.51 | -60.11 | -71.54 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -35.66 | -42.44 | -50.51 | -60.11 | -71.54 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.54 | 19.99 | 9.60 | -3.50 | -8.88 | -4.26 | -5.07 | -6.04 | -7.19 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6 | -20.29 | -13.21 | -1.40 | 16.78 | 4.08 | 4.85 | 5.78 | 6.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -108.24 | -179.51 | -108.67 | -12.56 | -0.89 | -67.62 | -80.47 | -95.77 | -113.97 | -135.64 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -95.39 | -123.10 | -146.50 | -174.34 | -207.49 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -81.77 | -90.47 | -92.29 | -94.16 | -96.06 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -454.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 16.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -211.63 |
| Terminal Value | -1,444.61 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -668.85 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,123.60 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 205.01 |
| Equity Value | -1,328.61 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.41 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -158.02 |