Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Axonics, Inc. (AXNX)

$67.34

+2.10 (+3.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -183,929,783.25 | 67.34 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.130.7113.82111.54180.291,566.3913,609.10118,238.341,027,276.188,925,162.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -17.34-30.19-76.43-51.30-62.73-57,753.81-501,775.56-4,359,517.26-37,876,278.06-329,075,985.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -18.06-31.14-77.62-53.04-71.86-59,994.49-521,243.05-4,528,654.29-39,345,771.26-341,843,209.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.730.951.191.749.132,240.6919,467.48169,137.021,469,493.2012,767,223.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 24.40157.52183.67241.18220.88134,682.941,170,149.8610,166,474.5988,328,178.38767,411,262.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -0.437.8818.2729.045875,099.9344,309.15384,965.913,344,653.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.543.6715.6663.0664.956,041.3852,488.62456,030.703,962,077.5934,423,250
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.623.445.8810.667.655,649.9249,087.53426,481.393,705,347.8132,192,734.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.04-1.23-1.34-2.94-2.26-3,127.36-27,171.08-236,067.28-2,050,995.45-17,819,421.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 67.34
Beta 0.415
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 71.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.838
Total Debt 10.42
Total Equity 2,490.32
Total Capital 2,500.74
Debt Weighting 0.42
Equity Weighting 99.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.130.7113.82111.54180.291,566.3913,609.10118,238.341,027,276.188,925,162.07
EBITDA -17.34-30.19-76.43-51.30-62.73-57,753.81-501,775.56-4,359,517.26-37,876,278.06-329,075,985.53
EBIT -18.06-31.14-77.62-53.04-71.86-59,994.49-521,243.05-4,528,654.29-39,345,771.26-341,843,209.42
Tax Rate 0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.99%-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%
EBIAT -18.06-31.14-77.63-53.04-72.57-60,113.58-522,277.68-4,537,643.36-39,423,869.93-342,521,744.87
Depreciation 0.730.951.191.749.132,240.6919,467.48169,137.021,469,493.2012,767,223.90
Accounts Receivable ---7.45-10.39-10.77-557.95-4,512.94-39,209.21-340,656.77-2,959,687.88
Inventories --2.13-11.99-47.40-1.89-5,976.44-46,447.24-403,542.08-3,506,046.89-30,461,172.41
Accounts Payable -1.822.454.78-3.015,642.2743,437.61377,393.863,278,866.4228,487,387.18
Capital Expenditure -1.04-1.23-1.34-2.94-2.26-3,127.36-27,171.08-236,067.28-2,050,995.45-17,819,421.13
UFCF -18.37-31.73-94.77-107.25-81.37-61,892.37-537,503.84-4,669,931.05-40,573,209.42-352,507,415.21
WACC
PV UFCF -58,328.50-477,385.19-3,908,782.67-32,004,725.34-262,051,520.77
SUM PV UFCF -298,500,742.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) -359,557,563.51
Terminal Value -8,748,359,209.60
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,503,468,398.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,801,969,141.23
Net Debt -210.46
Equity Value -6,801,968,930.77
Shares Outstanding 36.98
Equity Value Per Share -183,929,783.25