Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AMREP Corporation (AXR)

$11.36

+0.02 (+0.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -310.25 | 11.36 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40.1812.8318.7840.0762.4885.53117.09160.28219.42300.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.761.45-7.0910.6321.798.0110.9615.0120.5428.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.510.84-7.6210.0821.575.888.0511.0215.0920.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.250.610.540.550.232.132.913.985.457.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 14.0413.2717.5024.8024.7456.9777.98106.75146.14200.06
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.110.280.060.040.053.064.195.737.8510.75
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 58.8757.7753.4555.5967.25192.91264.08361.51494.89677.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.212.963.132.033.4812.1216.5922.7031.0842.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.14-0.01-0.01-0-1.29-0.43-0.59-0.81-1.11-1.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.36
Beta 0.915
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.19
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.292
Total Debt 2.03
Total Equity 81.71
Total Capital 83.74
Debt Weighting 2.42
Equity Weighting 97.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40.1812.8318.7840.0762.4885.53117.09160.28219.42300.37
EBITDA 4.761.45-7.0910.6321.798.0110.9615.0120.5428.12
EBIT 3.510.84-7.6210.0821.575.888.0511.0215.0920.66
Tax Rate 93.11%148.12%22.58%26.34%26.45%63.32%63.32%63.32%63.32%63.32%
EBIAT 0.24-0.41-5.907.4215.862.162.954.045.547.58
Depreciation 1.250.610.540.550.232.132.913.985.457.46
Accounts Receivable -5.830.230.02-0.01-3.01-1.13-1.55-2.12-2.90
Inventories -1.104.32-2.14-11.66-125.66-71.17-97.43-133.38-182.59
Accounts Payable --5.250.16-1.091.458.634.476.128.3811.47
Capital Expenditure -0.14-0.01-0.01-0.01-1.29-0.43-0.59-0.81-1.11-1.52
UFCF 1.351.87-0.664.764.58-116.19-62.56-85.64-117.24-160.49
WACC
PV UFCF -107.49-53.55-67.81-85.89-108.77
SUM PV UFCF -423.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.09
Free cash flow (t + 1) -163.70
Terminal Value -2,688.04
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,821.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,245.34
Net Debt -13.69
Equity Value -2,231.65
Shares Outstanding 7.19
Equity Value Per Share -310.25