Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)

$62.53

+0.93 (+1.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -203.91 | 62.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 131.61253.57417.91495.31536.14783.091,143.791,670.632,440.153,564.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -14.4536.6536.2022.57-121.94-9.47-13.84-20.21-29.52-43.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -18.4032.8127.9110.47-138.32-28.27-41.29-60.31-88.10-128.67
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.963.848.2912.1016.3818.8027.4640.1058.5785.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 174.10329.69786.94756.34659.251,137.481,661.412,426.683,544.455,177.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 49.8094.92129.91136.99192.32266.07388.63567.63829.091,210.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.525.039.385.348.0911.2916.5024.0935.1951.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.67-6.73-11.45-26.36-32.77-30.72-44.87-65.54-95.73-139.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 62.53
Beta 0.781
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.525
Total Debt 842.20
Total Equity 4,130.61
Total Capital 4,972.81
Debt Weighting 16.94
Equity Weighting 83.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 131.61253.57417.91495.31536.14783.091,143.791,670.632,440.153,564.11
EBITDA -14.4536.6536.2022.57-121.94-9.47-13.84-20.21-29.52-43.12
EBIT -18.4032.8127.9110.47-138.32-28.27-41.29-60.31-88.10-128.67
Tax Rate 4.92%-10.17%-347.61%11.83%-1.21%-68.45%-68.45%-68.45%-68.45%-68.45%
EBIAT -17.5036.15124.929.23-140-47.62-69.56-101.60-148.40-216.75
Depreciation 3.963.848.2912.1016.3818.8027.4640.1058.5785.55
Accounts Receivable --45.12-34.99-7.07-55.33-73.75-122.56-179.01-261.46-381.89
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -4.514.35-4.042.753.215.207.6011.1016.21
Capital Expenditure -3.67-6.73-11.45-26.36-32.77-30.72-44.87-65.54-95.73-139.82
UFCF -17.21-7.3691.12-16.14-208.97-130.09-204.33-298.44-435.91-636.70
WACC
PV UFCF -122.48-181.13-249.10-342.56-471.09
SUM PV UFCF -1,366.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) -649.43
Terminal Value -15,425.98
Present Value of Terminal Value -11,413.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -12,780.05
Net Debt 689.83
Equity Value -13,469.87
Shares Outstanding 66.06
Equity Value Per Share -203.91