Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Azure Power Global Limited (AZRE)

$5.89

+0.08 (+1.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -30,622.43 | 5.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,182.987,700.609,926.2112,95815,23621,37329,981.9542,058.5658,999.5782,764.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,530.246,653.078,321.989,6068,28916,378.8322,976.1632,230.8645,213.3263,425.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,483.684,770.626,184.856,7465,08711,502.2616,135.3222,634.5631,751.6644,541.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,046.561,882.452,137.132,8603,2024,876.576,840.849,596.3013,461.6518,883.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8,757.479,730.1010,544.999,79211,10725,237.8835,403.5949,664.0169,668.4797,730.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,201.962,474.733,549.924,6925,1927,135.2010,009.2314,040.9019,696.5227,630.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,618.251,521.853,477.381,7954,2947,836.6310,993.1915,421.2021,632.7930,346.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15,432.65-19,665.65-26,054.27-18,364-18,919-49,272.83-69,119.72-96,960.86-136,016.29-190,803.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.89
Beta 1.137
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -7.71
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.126
Total Debt 107,165
Total Equity 282.60
Total Capital 107,447.60
Debt Weighting 99.74
Equity Weighting 0.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,182.987,700.609,926.2112,95815,23621,37329,981.9542,058.5658,999.5782,764.36
EBITDA 3,530.246,653.078,321.989,6068,28916,378.8322,976.1632,230.8645,213.3263,425.05
EBIT 2,483.684,770.626,184.856,7465,08711,502.2616,135.3222,634.5631,751.6644,541.10
Tax Rate -291.88%35.64%73.09%-22.78%-7.71%-42.73%-42.73%-42.73%-42.73%-42.73%
EBIAT 9,733.043,070.451,664.538,282.835,479.1116,417.0323,029.7432,306.0245,318.7563,572.96
Depreciation 1,046.561,882.452,137.132,8603,2024,876.576,840.849,596.3013,461.6518,883.95
Accounts Receivable --1,272.77-1,075.19-1,142.08-500-1,943.20-2,874.03-4,031.67-5,655.62-7,933.68
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --2,096.401,955.53-1,682.382,4993,542.633,156.564,428.016,211.598,713.60
Capital Expenditure -15,432.65-19,665.65-26,054.27-18,364-18,919-49,272.83-69,119.72-96,960.86-136,016.29-190,803.09
UFCF -4,653.05-18,081.92-21,372.27-10,045.63-8,238.89-26,379.80-38,966.61-54,662.20-76,679.91-107,566.25
WACC
PV UFCF -24,335.61-33,161.49-42,914.02-55,534.70-71,867.02
SUM PV UFCF -227,812.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) -109,717.58
Terminal Value -1,714,337.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,145,380.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,373,193.46
Net Debt 96,058
Equity Value -1,469,251.46
Shares Outstanding 47.98
Equity Value Per Share -30,622.43