Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ball Corporation (BALL)
$64.78
+0.70 (+1.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 11,474 | 11,781 | 13,811 | 15,349 | 14,029 | 14,816.13 | 15,647.42 | 16,525.35 | 17,452.55 | 18,431.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,847 | 1,892 | 2,120 | 1,939 | 2,112 | 2,228.18 | 2,353.20 | 2,485.23 | 2,624.67 | 2,771.93 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,169 | 1,224 | 1,420 | 1,267 | 1,426 | 1,460.24 | 1,542.17 | 1,628.70 | 1,720.08 | 1,816.59 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 678 | 668 | 700 | 672 | 686 | 767.94 | 811.02 | 856.53 | 904.59 | 955.34 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,798 | 1,366 | 563 | 548 | 695 | 1,181.32 | 1,247.60 | 1,317.60 | 1,391.52 | 1,469.60 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,631 | 1,738 | 2,560 | 2,594 | 2,334 | 2,401.41 | 2,536.14 | 2,678.44 | 2,828.72 | 2,987.43 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,274 | 1,353 | 1,795 | 2,179 | 1,559 | 1,804.42 | 1,905.67 | 2,012.59 | 2,125.51 | 2,244.76 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,136 | 3,430 | 4,759 | 4,383 | 3,753 | 4,332.57 | 4,575.66 | 4,832.39 | 5,103.52 | 5,389.87 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -598 | -1,113 | -1,726 | -1,651 | -1,045 | -1,344.17 | -1,419.59 | -1,499.24 | -1,583.36 | -1,672.19 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 64.78 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.892 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 317.02 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 15.23 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.69% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.566 |
Total Debt | 8,569 |
Total Equity | 20,536.69 |
Total Capital | 29,105.69 |
Debt Weighting | 29.44 |
Equity Weighting | 70.56 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 11,474 | 11,781 | 13,811 | 15,349 | 14,029 | 14,816.13 | 15,647.42 | 16,525.35 | 17,452.55 | 18,431.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,847 | 1,892 | 2,120 | 1,939 | 2,112 | 2,228.18 | 2,353.20 | 2,485.23 | 2,624.67 | 2,771.93 |
EBIT | 1,169 | 1,224 | 1,420 | 1,267 | 1,426 | 1,460.24 | 1,542.17 | 1,628.70 | 1,720.08 | 1,816.59 |
Tax Rate | 6.91% | 14.85% | 12.90% | 18.67% | 15.23% | 13.71% | 13.71% | 13.71% | 13.71% | 13.71% |
EBIAT | 1,088.25 | 1,042.27 | 1,236.87 | 1,030.51 | 1,208.85 | 1,260.06 | 1,330.76 | 1,405.42 | 1,484.28 | 1,567.55 |
Depreciation | 678 | 668 | 700 | 672 | 686 | 767.94 | 811.02 | 856.53 | 904.59 | 955.34 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -107 | -822 | -34 | 260 | -67.41 | -134.74 | -142.30 | -150.28 | -158.71 |
Inventories | - | -79 | -442 | -384 | 620 | -245.42 | -101.24 | -106.92 | -112.92 | -119.26 |
Accounts Payable | - | 294 | 1,329 | -376 | -630 | 579.57 | 243.09 | 256.73 | 271.13 | 286.34 |
Capital Expenditure | -598 | -1,113 | -1,726 | -1,651 | -1,045 | -1,344.17 | -1,419.59 | -1,499.24 | -1,583.36 | -1,672.19 |
UFCF | 1,168.25 | 705.27 | 275.87 | -742.49 | 1,099.85 | 950.57 | 729.30 | 770.22 | 813.44 | 859.08 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 887.30 | 635.46 | 626.44 | 617.56 | 608.80 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,375.57 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 889.14 |
Terminal Value | 24,494.34 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 17,358.42 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 20,733.99 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,874 |
Equity Value | 12,859.99 |
Shares Outstanding | 317.02 |
Equity Value Per Share | 40.56 |