Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ball Corporation (BALL)

$48.355

+0.70 (+1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 48.72 | 48.355 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 10,98311,63511,47411,78113,81114,655.5215,551.6916,502.6517,511.7718,582.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,5531,6421,6321,6272,0042,075.122,202.012,336.662,479.552,631.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8249409549591,3041,215.761,290.111,368.991,452.711,541.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 729702678668700859.36911.91967.671,026.841,089.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4487211,7981,3665631,219.851,294.441,373.601,457.591,546.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6341,8021,6311,7382,5602,282.412,421.972,570.082,727.232,894
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,5261,2711,2741,3531,7951,770.471,878.741,993.622,115.532,244.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,7623,0953,1363,4304,7594,181.304,436.984,708.304,996.215,301.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -556-816-598-1,113-1,726-1,149.94-1,220.25-1,294.87-1,374.05-1,458.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 48.355
Beta 0.632
Diluted Shares Outstanding 332.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.725
Total Debt 8,157
Total Equity 16,093.27
Total Capital 24,250.27
Debt Weighting 33.64
Equity Weighting 66.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 10,98311,63511,47411,78113,81114,655.5215,551.6916,502.6517,511.7718,582.59
EBITDA 1,5531,6421,6321,6272,0042,075.122,202.012,336.662,479.552,631.17
EBIT 8249409549591,3041,215.761,290.111,368.991,452.711,541.54
Tax Rate 27.24%28.28%6.91%14.85%12.90%18.03%18.03%18.03%18.03%18.03%
EBIAT 599.56674.19888.10816.621,135.83996.521,057.461,122.121,190.731,263.54
Depreciation 729702678668700859.36911.91967.671,026.841,089.63
Accounts Receivable --168171-107-822277.59-139.57-148.10-157.16-166.77
Inventories -255-3-79-44224.53-108.26-114.88-121.91-129.36
Accounts Payable -333412941,329-577.70255.68271.32287.91305.51
Capital Expenditure -556-816-598-1,113-1,726-1,149.94-1,220.25-1,294.87-1,374.05-1,458.07
UFCF 772.56980.191,177.10479.62174.83430.36756.96803.25852.37904.49
WACC
PV UFCF 408.20681685.42689.87694.36
SUM PV UFCF 3,158.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 922.58
Terminal Value 26,897.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,648.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 23,807.35
Net Debt 7,594
Equity Value 16,213.35
Shares Outstanding 332.81
Equity Value Per Share 48.72