Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ball Corporation (BALL)

$64.78

+0.70 (+1.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 40.56 | 64.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 11,47411,78113,81115,34914,02914,816.1315,647.4216,525.3517,452.5518,431.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,8471,8922,1201,9392,1122,228.182,353.202,485.232,624.672,771.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,1691,2241,4201,2671,4261,460.241,542.171,628.701,720.081,816.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 678668700672686767.94811.02856.53904.59955.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 1,7981,3665635486951,181.321,247.601,317.601,391.521,469.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6311,7382,5602,5942,3342,401.412,536.142,678.442,828.722,987.43
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,2741,3531,7952,1791,5591,804.421,905.672,012.592,125.512,244.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,1363,4304,7594,3833,7534,332.574,575.664,832.395,103.525,389.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -598-1,113-1,726-1,651-1,045-1,344.17-1,419.59-1,499.24-1,583.36-1,672.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.78
Beta 0.892
Diluted Shares Outstanding 317.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.566
Total Debt 8,569
Total Equity 20,536.69
Total Capital 29,105.69
Debt Weighting 29.44
Equity Weighting 70.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 11,47411,78113,81115,34914,02914,816.1315,647.4216,525.3517,452.5518,431.76
EBITDA 1,8471,8922,1201,9392,1122,228.182,353.202,485.232,624.672,771.93
EBIT 1,1691,2241,4201,2671,4261,460.241,542.171,628.701,720.081,816.59
Tax Rate 6.91%14.85%12.90%18.67%15.23%13.71%13.71%13.71%13.71%13.71%
EBIAT 1,088.251,042.271,236.871,030.511,208.851,260.061,330.761,405.421,484.281,567.55
Depreciation 678668700672686767.94811.02856.53904.59955.34
Accounts Receivable --107-822-34260-67.41-134.74-142.30-150.28-158.71
Inventories --79-442-384620-245.42-101.24-106.92-112.92-119.26
Accounts Payable -2941,329-376-630579.57243.09256.73271.13286.34
Capital Expenditure -598-1,113-1,726-1,651-1,045-1,344.17-1,419.59-1,499.24-1,583.36-1,672.19
UFCF 1,168.25705.27275.87-742.491,099.85950.57729.30770.22813.44859.08
WACC
PV UFCF 887.30635.46626.44617.56608.80
SUM PV UFCF 3,375.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 889.14
Terminal Value 24,494.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 17,358.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,733.99
Net Debt 7,874
Equity Value 12,859.99
Shares Outstanding 317.02
Equity Value Per Share 40.56