Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Bel Fuse Inc. (BELFA)
$55.93
+1.93 (+3.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 548.18 | 492.41 | 465.77 | 543.49 | 654.23 | 689.36 | 726.38 | 765.38 | 806.48 | 849.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 29.16 | 5.37 | 15.63 | 25.49 | 68.16 | 34.30 | 36.14 | 38.08 | 40.12 | 42.28 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 10.95 | -11.10 | -0.79 | 8.63 | 53.30 | 12.83 | 13.52 | 14.25 | 15.01 | 15.82 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.21 | 16.47 | 16.42 | 16.86 | 14.86 | 21.46 | 22.61 | 23.83 | 25.11 | 26.46 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 53.91 | 73.15 | 84.94 | 61.76 | 70.27 | 89.66 | 94.47 | 99.54 | 104.89 | 110.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 91.94 | 75.49 | 71.37 | 87.14 | 107.27 | 110.10 | 116.01 | 122.24 | 128.80 | 135.72 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 120.07 | 107.28 | 100.13 | 139.38 | 172.46 | 161.58 | 170.25 | 179.40 | 189.03 | 199.18 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 56.17 | 44.42 | 39.77 | 65.96 | 64.59 | 68.68 | 72.37 | 76.26 | 80.35 | 84.67 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.59 | -9.89 | -5.48 | -9.40 | -8.83 | -11.55 | -12.17 | -12.83 | -13.51 | -14.24 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 55.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.664 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10.39 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.79 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.71% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.010 |
| Total Debt | 116.61 |
| Total Equity | 581.34 |
| Total Capital | 697.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 548.18 | 492.41 | 465.77 | 543.49 | 654.23 | 689.36 | 726.38 | 765.38 | 806.48 | 849.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 29.16 | 5.37 | 15.63 | 25.49 | 68.16 | 34.30 | 36.14 | 38.08 | 40.12 | 42.28 |
| EBIT | 10.95 | -11.10 | -0.79 | 8.63 | 53.30 | 12.83 | 13.52 | 14.25 | 15.01 | 15.82 |
| Tax Rate | 12.31% | -19.73% | -5.43% | 9.17% | 10.79% | 1.42% | 1.42% | 1.42% | 1.42% | 1.42% |
| EBIAT | 9.60 | -13.29 | -0.84 | 7.84 | 47.55 | 12.65 | 13.33 | 14.05 | 14.80 | 15.60 |
| Depreciation | 18.21 | 16.47 | 16.42 | 16.86 | 14.86 | 21.46 | 22.61 | 23.83 | 25.11 | 26.46 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 16.45 | 4.11 | -15.76 | -20.14 | -2.82 | -5.91 | -6.23 | -6.56 | -6.92 |
| Inventories | - | 12.79 | 7.14 | -39.25 | -33.08 | 10.89 | -8.68 | -9.14 | -9.63 | -10.15 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -11.75 | -4.65 | 26.19 | -1.37 | 4.09 | 3.69 | 3.89 | 4.09 | 4.31 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.59 | -9.89 | -5.48 | -9.40 | -8.83 | -11.55 | -12.17 | -12.83 | -13.51 | -14.24 |
| UFCF | 16.21 | 10.79 | 16.72 | -13.52 | -1.01 | 34.72 | 12.87 | 13.56 | 14.29 | 15.06 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 31.39 | 10.52 | 10.02 | 9.55 | 9.09 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 70.57 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.62 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15.36 |
| Terminal Value | 178.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 107.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 178.15 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 46.35 |
| Equity Value | 131.81 |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.39 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 12.68 |