Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

BEST Inc. (BEST)

$0.6951

-0.05 (-7.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.01 | 0.6951 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,198.334,473.765,628.144,799.201,828.131,778.071,729.371,682.011,635.951,591.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -129.126.4962.10-210.2065.26-12.80-12.45-12.11-11.78-11.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -187.34-67.37-16.74-292.6035.14-42.09-40.94-39.81-38.72-37.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 58.2373.8678.8482.4030.1229.2928.4927.7126.9526.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 575.06422.04488.36264.31594.09263.49256.28249.26242.43235.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 174.86297.24340.28280.82195.57123.42120.04116.75113.56110.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 25.1224.1622.407.064.107.457.257.056.856.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 382.14456.25542.62663.19212.19203.46197.89192.47187.20182.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -239.81-421.67-376.41-425.51-148.43-144.37-140.42-136.57-132.83-129.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.6,951
Beta 0.623
Diluted Shares Outstanding 387.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 120.78
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.907
Total Debt 937
Total Equity 269.35
Total Capital 1,206.35
Debt Weighting 77.67
Equity Weighting 22.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,198.334,473.765,628.144,799.201,828.131,778.071,729.371,682.011,635.951,591.14
EBITDA -129.126.4962.10-210.2065.26-12.80-12.45-12.11-11.78-11.45
EBIT -187.34-67.37-16.74-292.6035.14-42.09-40.94-39.81-38.72-37.66
Tax Rate -0.86%-2.41%-0.99%-21.96%120.78%18.91%18.91%18.91%18.91%18.91%
EBIAT -188.96-68.99-16.91-356.87-7.30-34.13-33.19-32.29-31.40-30.54
Depreciation 58.2373.8678.8482.4030.1229.2928.4927.7126.9526.21
Accounts Receivable --122.39-43.0459.4685.2572.153.383.293.203.11
Inventories -0.951.7615.342.96-3.350.200.200.190.19
Accounts Payable -74.1186.37120.57-451-8.73-5.57-5.42-5.27-5.13
Capital Expenditure -239.81-421.67-376.41-425.51-148.43-144.37-140.42-136.57-132.83-129.19
UFCF -370.54-464.13-269.38-504.61-488.41-89.14-147.11-143.08-139.16-135.35
WACC
PV UFCF -88.13-143.78-138.26-132.94-127.83
SUM PV UFCF -630.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) -138.06
Terminal Value 16,242.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,339.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,708.71
Net Debt 366.49
Equity Value 14,342.23
Shares Outstanding 387.49
Equity Value Per Share 37.01