Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS)

$36.11

+1.11 (+3.17%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 73.27 | 36.11 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	231.53	225.21	239.23	245.86	251	256.24	261.60	267.06	272.65	278.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	138.62	136.60	92.11	82.94	120.96	123.49	126.07	128.70	131.39	134.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	92.29	91.53	44.24	33.74	70.73	72.21	73.72	75.26	76.83	78.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	46.33	45.07	47.87	49.20	50.23	51.28	52.35	53.45	54.56	55.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	13.91	26.86	14.59	13.28	13.28	17.80	18.17	18.55	18.93	19.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	52.31	64.92	58.66	56.32	56.32	62.16	63.46	64.78	66.14	67.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	35.20	24.38	25.56	42.98	42.98	36.55	37.31	38.09	38.89	39.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	19.01	19.40	19.81	20.22	20.65	21.08	21.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 36.11
Beta	1.135
Diluted Shares Outstanding	23.66
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.055
Total Debt	961.58
Total Equity	854.43
Total Capital	1,816.01
Debt Weighting	52.95
Equity Weighting	47.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	231.53	225.21	239.23	245.86	251	256.24	261.60	267.06	272.65	278.34
EBITDA	138.62	136.60	92.11	82.94	120.96	123.49	126.07	128.70	131.39	134.14
EBIT	92.29	91.53	44.24	33.74	70.73	72.21	73.72	75.26	76.83	78.43
Tax Rate	19.43%	19.74%	21.51%	0.00%	15.17%	15.17%	15.17%	15.17%	15.17%	15.17%
EBIAT	74.36	73.46	34.72	33.74	60	61.25	62.53	63.84	65.17	66.53
Depreciation	46.33	45.07	47.87	49.20	50.23	51.28	52.35	53.45	54.56	55.70
Accounts Receivable	-	-12.61	6.26	2.34	0	-5.84	-1.30	-1.33	-1.35	-1.38
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-10.82	1.17	17.42	-0	-6.43	0.76	0.78	0.80	0.81
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	19.01	19.40	19.81	20.22	20.65	21.08	21.52
UFCF	120.69	95.11	90.03	121.70	129.63	120.08	134.57	137.38	140.25	143.18
WACC
PV UFCF					129.63	112.32	117.74	112.43	107.36	102.52
SUM PV UFCF										552.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.91
Free cash flow (t + 1)	146.05
Terminal Value	2,974.51
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,129.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,682.09
Net Debt	948.30
Equity Value	1,733.79
Shares Outstanding	23.66
Equity Value Per Share	73.27