Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Biglari Holdings Inc. (BH)

$118.53

-0.48 (-0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -65.01 | 118.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 839.80809.89668.84433.68366.11300.46246.59202.38166.09136.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 28.6855.96104.98-2.4479.4828.3423.2619.0915.6712.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7.2336.6475.40-34.6749.4313.3210.938.977.366.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.4519.3229.5832.2230.0515.0212.3310.128.306.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 81.8782.42112.63119.36125.4159.2248.6039.8932.7326.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.2815.7421.6419.1828.5111.629.537.826.425.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7.277.544.672.743.802.502.051.691.381.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 40.6241.9732.6326.5436.6818.6515.3112.5610.318.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.03-17.80-17.68-20.70-64.55-16.95-13.91-11.41-9.37-7.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 118.53
Beta 1.799
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.369
Total Debt 121.38
Total Equity 188.02
Total Capital 309.40
Debt Weighting 39.23
Equity Weighting 60.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 839.80809.89668.84433.68366.11300.46246.59202.38166.09136.31
EBITDA 28.6855.96104.98-2.4479.4828.3423.2619.0915.6712.86
EBIT 7.2336.6475.40-34.6749.4313.3210.938.977.366.04
Tax Rate 488.45%-15.74%17.70%24.33%16.06%106.16%106.16%106.16%106.16%106.16%
EBIAT -28.0942.4162.05-26.2341.49-0.82-0.67-0.55-0.45-0.37
Depreciation 21.4519.3229.5832.2230.0515.0212.3310.128.306.82
Accounts Receivable -0.54-5.902.45-9.3216.892.081.711.401.15
Inventories --0.272.861.94-1.071.300.450.370.300.25
Accounts Payable -1.35-9.34-6.0910.15-18.03-3.34-2.74-2.25-1.85
Capital Expenditure -8.03-17.80-17.68-20.70-64.55-16.95-13.91-11.41-9.37-7.69
UFCF -14.6845.5561.58-16.416.75-2.59-3.07-2.52-2.06-1.69
WACC
PV UFCF -2.36-2.56-1.92-1.44-1.08
SUM PV UFCF -9.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.46
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.73
Terminal Value -23.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -14.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -24.10
Net Debt 79.03
Equity Value -103.13
Shares Outstanding 1.59
Equity Value Per Share -65.01