Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

BHP Group Limited (BHP)

$50.04

-0.38 (-0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 151.68 | 50.04 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38,28543,63844,28842,93160,81769,037.8978,370.0388,963.63100,989.22114,640.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 19,18918,44321,22919,72330,21632,578.1136,981.8341,980.8247,655.5454,097.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,47012,15515,40013,61123,39222,472.3025,509.9728,958.2632,872.6737,316.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7,7196,2885,8296,1126,82410,105.8111,471.8613,022.5514,782.8716,781.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14,18415,88915,62813,46215,47622,858.5425,948.4329,455.9933,437.6737,957.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,0313,2023,5863,7306,3385,862.896,655.407,555.048,576.289,735.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,6733,7643,8404,1014,4266,036.676,852.677,778.988,830.4910,024.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,5515,9776,7175,7677,0279,437.4910,713.2012,161.3413,805.2415,671.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,252-4,979-6,250-6,900-6,606-8,776.45-9,962.79-11,309.51-12,838.26-14,573.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 50.04
Beta 0.734
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,534.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.267
Total Debt 20,983
Total Equity 126,827.84
Total Capital 147,810.84
Debt Weighting 14.20
Equity Weighting 85.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38,28543,63844,28842,93160,81769,037.8978,370.0388,963.63100,989.22114,640.35
EBITDA 19,18918,44321,22919,72330,21632,578.1136,981.8341,980.8247,655.5454,097.34
EBIT 11,47012,15515,40013,61123,39222,472.3025,509.9728,958.2632,872.6737,316.21
Tax Rate 42.94%74.88%44.81%41.11%54.05%51.56%51.56%51.56%51.56%51.56%
EBIAT 6,545.083,052.968,499.738,015.4810,748.4710,886.1012,357.6214,028.0615,924.2918,076.84
Depreciation 7,7196,2885,8296,1126,82410,105.8111,471.8613,022.5514,782.8716,781.13
Accounts Receivable --171-384-144-2,608475.11-792.51-899.64-1,021.25-1,159.29
Inventories --91-76-261-325-1,610.67-816-926.30-1,051.52-1,193.65
Accounts Payable -426740-9501,2602,410.491,275.711,448.151,643.901,866.11
Capital Expenditure -4,252-4,979-6,250-6,900-6,606-8,776.45-9,962.79-11,309.51-12,838.26-14,573.66
UFCF 10,012.084,525.968,358.735,872.489,293.4713,490.4013,533.8815,363.3117,440.0319,797.47
WACC
PV UFCF 12,663.4811,925.5512,707.7613,541.2714,429.46
SUM PV UFCF 65,267.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20,193.42
Terminal Value 445,770.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 324,901.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 390,169.29
Net Debt 5,737
Equity Value 384,432.29
Shares Outstanding 2,534.53
Equity Value Per Share 151.68