Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)

$8.12

-0.23 (-2.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 29.12 | 8.12 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 990.601,024.981,018.87879.22683.99627.50575.68528.13484.51444.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 56.0641.8055.1437.321.7924.6722.6320.7619.0517.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 47.8832.7644.7522.92-11.6616.7215.3414.0712.9111.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.189.0410.3814.4013.457.947.296.696.135.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 62.6271.3882.0758.8311.7137.3334.2431.4228.8226.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10.1524.0710.547.629.978.457.757.116.525.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 76.1557.3378.8356.52125.2157.4252.6848.3344.3440.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.3395.78102.2757.6072.2756.8752.1747.8643.9140.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.25-32.12-35.51-18.97-16.60-15.23-13.98-12.82-11.76-10.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.12
Beta 1.123
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -60.21
After-tax Cost of Debt -6.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.267
Total Debt 149.57
Total Equity 220.37
Total Capital 369.94
Debt Weighting 40.43
Equity Weighting 59.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 990.601,024.981,018.87879.22683.99627.50575.68528.13484.51444.50
EBITDA 56.0641.8055.1437.321.7924.6722.6320.7619.0517.47
EBIT 47.8832.7644.7522.92-11.6616.7215.3414.0712.9111.85
Tax Rate 22.75%-14.69%17.99%-16.15%-60.21%-10.06%-10.06%-10.06%-10.06%-10.06%
EBIAT 36.9937.5736.7026.62-18.6818.4016.8815.4914.2113.04
Depreciation 8.189.0410.3814.4013.457.947.296.696.135.63
Accounts Receivable --13.9213.532.91-2.341.520.700.640.590.54
Inventories -18.82-21.5022.31-68.6867.794.744.353.993.66
Accounts Payable -8.456.49-44.6614.67-15.40-4.70-4.31-3.95-3.63
Capital Expenditure -9.25-32.12-35.51-18.97-16.60-15.23-13.98-12.82-11.76-10.79
UFCF 35.9227.8510.092.61-78.2065.0210.9410.049.218.45
WACC
PV UFCF 63.1910.339.218.217.32
SUM PV UFCF 98.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8.62
Terminal Value 957.41
Present Value of Terminal Value 829.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 928.16
Net Debt 137.86
Equity Value 790.30
Shares Outstanding 27.14
Equity Value Per Share 29.12