Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)
$21.58
+0.33 (+1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,024.98 | 1,018.87 | 879.22 | 683.99 | 800.64 | 761.70 | 724.66 | 689.41 | 655.88 | 623.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 42.58 | 54.22 | 37.14 | 21.75 | -23.69 | 21.21 | 20.18 | 19.19 | 18.26 | 17.37 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 33.53 | 43.84 | 22.74 | 8.30 | -37.74 | 10.15 | 9.65 | 9.18 | 8.74 | 8.31 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 9.04 | 10.38 | 14.40 | 13.45 | 14.05 | 11.06 | 10.52 | 10.01 | 9.52 | 9.06 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 60.26 | 70.96 | 44.51 | 11.71 | 10.48 | 31.88 | 30.33 | 28.85 | 27.45 | 26.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 24.07 | 10.54 | 7.62 | 9.97 | 12.53 | 11.08 | 10.54 | 10.03 | 9.54 | 9.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 57.33 | 78.83 | 56.52 | 125.21 | 142.98 | 85.19 | 81.05 | 77.11 | 73.36 | 69.79 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 95.78 | 102.27 | 57.60 | 72.27 | 107.94 | 76.14 | 72.44 | 68.91 | 65.56 | 62.37 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -32.12 | -35.51 | -18.97 | -12.21 | -6.45 | -17.32 | -16.48 | -15.67 | -14.91 | -14.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.58 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.199 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.02 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.58 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.914 |
| Total Debt | 172.33 |
| Total Equity | 669.42 |
| Total Capital | 841.75 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.47 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.53 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,024.98 | 1,018.87 | 879.22 | 683.99 | 800.64 | 761.70 | 724.66 | 689.41 | 655.88 | 623.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 42.58 | 54.22 | 37.14 | 21.75 | -23.69 | 21.21 | 20.18 | 19.19 | 18.26 | 17.37 |
| EBIT | 33.53 | 43.84 | 22.74 | 8.30 | -37.74 | 10.15 | 9.65 | 9.18 | 8.74 | 8.31 |
| Tax Rate | -14.69% | 17.99% | 14.48% | 60.21% | 21.58% | 19.92% | 19.92% | 19.92% | 19.92% | 19.92% |
| EBIAT | 38.46 | 35.95 | 19.45 | 3.30 | -29.60 | 8.13 | 7.73 | 7.35 | 7 | 6.66 |
| Depreciation | 9.04 | 10.38 | 14.40 | 13.45 | 14.05 | 11.06 | 10.52 | 10.01 | 9.52 | 9.06 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 13.53 | 2.91 | -2.34 | -2.57 | 1.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| Inventories | - | -21.50 | 22.31 | -68.68 | -17.77 | 57.78 | 4.14 | 3.94 | 3.75 | 3.57 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.49 | -44.66 | 14.67 | 35.67 | -31.80 | -3.70 | -3.52 | -3.35 | -3.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | -32.12 | -35.51 | -18.97 | -12.21 | -6.45 | -17.32 | -16.48 | -15.67 | -14.91 | -14.19 |
| UFCF | 15.38 | 9.34 | -4.56 | -51.82 | -6.67 | 29.31 | 2.76 | 2.62 | 2.49 | 2.37 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 26.83 | 2.31 | 2.01 | 1.75 | 1.52 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 34.43 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.25 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2.42 |
| Terminal Value | 33.39 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 21.45 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 55.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 161.85 |
| Equity Value | -105.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.02 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.42 |