Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cairn Homes plc (C5H.IR)

0.892 €

-0.06 (-6.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -44.11 | 0.892 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 149.46337.02435.33261.88423.98611.29881.351,270.731,832.122,641.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14.3748.3467.4324.5857.7476.35110.08158.72228.84329.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13.9748.0166.6823.8856.9375.14108.33156.19225.20324.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.400.330.740.700.811.211.752.523.645.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 68.8062.2356.8134.5340.03122.47176.58254.59367.06529.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 911.50933.35897.26968.189402,059.222,968.954,280.606,171.718,898.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.1916.0613.1015.2921.0629.4242.4161.1588.17127.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.21-0.59-1.31-0.20-1.49-2.10-3.02-4.36-6.28-9.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.892
Beta 1.128
Diluted Shares Outstanding 752.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.019
Total Debt 150.19
Total Equity 670.81
Total Capital 821
Debt Weighting 18.29
Equity Weighting 81.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 149.46337.02435.33261.88423.98611.29881.351,270.731,832.122,641.52
EBITDA 14.3748.3467.4324.5857.7476.35110.08158.72228.84329.93
EBIT 13.9748.0166.6823.8856.9375.14108.33156.19225.20324.69
Tax Rate 25.40%18.14%12.57%14.05%13.92%16.82%16.82%16.82%16.82%16.82%
EBIAT 10.4239.3058.3020.524962.5090.12129.93187.33270.09
Depreciation 0.400.330.740.700.811.211.752.523.645.24
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --21.8636.10-70.9328.18-1,119.22-909.73-1,311.64-1,891.11-2,726.58
Accounts Payable -7.87-2.962.185.778.361318.7427.0238.95
Capital Expenditure -1.21-0.59-1.31-0.20-1.49-2.10-3.02-4.36-6.28-9.06
UFCF 9.6125.0590.87-47.7282.28-1,049.24-807.90-1,164.81-1,679.41-2,421.35
WACC
PV UFCF -970.89-691.74-922.87-1,231.22-1,642.60
SUM PV UFCF -5,459.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,469.78
Terminal Value -40,688.32
Present Value of Terminal Value -27,602.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -33,061.55
Net Debt 110.16
Equity Value -33,171.71
Shares Outstanding 752.03
Equity Value Per Share -44.11