Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (C9F.DE)

1576.8 €

+28.20 (+1.82%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: - | 1576.8 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,476.41	4,864.99	5,586.37	5,984.63	7,547.06	8,617.71	9,840.24	11,236.20	12,830.20	14,650.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	439.09	470.42	835.02	716.85	1,067.42	1,043.56	1,191.60	1,360.65	1,553.67	1,774.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	275.74	268.44	458.29	293.78	812.76	612.88	699.83	799.11	912.47	1,041.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	163.35	201.98	376.73	423.07	254.66	430.68	491.78	561.54	641.20	732.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	508.95	676.80	880.78	951.60	1,076.32	1,227.34	1,401.45	1,600.26	1,827.28	2,086.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	49.81	62.31	108.25	387.28	193.66	230.41	263.10	300.42	343.04	391.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	19.86	21.55	26.10	26.45	32.83	38.45	43.90	50.13	57.24	65.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	82.03	113.07	115.82	121.99	163.16	179.77	205.27	234.39	267.64	305.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-216.78	-287.39	-333.91	-373.35	-442.47	-496.87	-567.36	-647.85	-739.75	-844.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1,576.8
Beta	1.431
Diluted Shares Outstanding	27.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.66
After-tax Cost of Debt	-%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.285
Total Debt	3,520.31
Total Equity	44,019.53
Total Capital	47,539.84
Debt Weighting	7.40
Equity Weighting	92.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,476.41	4,864.99	5,586.37	5,984.63	7,547.06	8,617.71	9,840.24	11,236.20	12,830.20	14,650.33
EBITDA	439.09	470.42	835.02	716.85	1,067.42	1,043.56	1,191.60	1,360.65	1,553.67	1,774.08
EBIT	275.74	268.44	458.29	293.78	812.76	612.88	699.83	799.11	912.47	1,041.91
Tax Rate	36.08%	34.23%	23.59%	-21.10%	19.66%	18.49%	18.49%	18.49%	18.49%	18.49%
EBIAT	176.25	176.55	350.16	355.77	652.98	499.54	570.41	651.33	743.73	849.24
Depreciation	163.35	201.98	376.73	423.07	254.66	430.68	491.78	561.54	641.20	732.17
Accounts Receivable	-	-12.51	-45.94	-279.03	193.62	-36.75	-32.69	-37.32	-42.62	-48.66
Inventories	-	-1.69	-4.54	-0.35	-6.38	-5.62	-5.45	-6.23	-7.11	-8.12
Accounts Payable	-	31.04	2.74	6.17	41.17	16.61	25.50	29.12	33.25	37.97
Capital Expenditure	-216.78	-287.39	-333.91	-373.35	-442.48	-496.87	-567.36	-647.85	-739.75	-844.70
UFCF	122.82	107.98	345.24	132.28	693.58	407.59	482.19	550.59	628.70	717.89
WACC
PV UFCF						-	-	-	-	-
SUM PV UFCF										-

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	-
Free cash flow (t + 1)	732.25
Terminal Value	-
Present Value of Terminal Value	-

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-
Net Debt	2,704.94
Equity Value	-
Shares Outstanding	27.92
Equity Value Per Share	-