Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)

$29.98

+0.52 (+1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.06 | 29.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,8303,304.103,623.202,981.903,371.303,554.783,748.243,952.234,167.324,394.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 634.50672.50815.40351.30568.80667.81704.16742.48782.89825.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 434.90455.3051031.80258.30369.35389.45410.65433456.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 199.60217.20305.40319.50310.50298.46314.71331.83349.89368.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 611.50446.10946.50926.10346.10729.13768.81810.65854.77901.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,010.701,053.101,165.801,020.301,198.401,205.251,270.851,340.011,412.941,489.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 375.30537616.20647.80519.80594.81627.18661.32697.31735.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 306458.90539.70461.90436.20483.63509.96537.71566.97597.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -188.70-338.40-384-163.60-362.80-311.08-328.02-345.87-364.69-384.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.98
Beta 2.007
Diluted Shares Outstanding 312.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.285
Total Debt 3,046.20
Total Equity 9,380.78
Total Capital 12,426.98
Debt Weighting 24.51
Equity Weighting 75.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,8303,304.103,623.202,981.903,371.303,554.783,748.243,952.234,167.324,394.12
EBITDA 634.50672.50815.40351.30568.80667.81704.16742.48782.89825.50
EBIT 434.90455.3051031.80258.30369.35389.45410.65433456.56
Tax Rate 9.82%17.44%20.70%45.87%7.75%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%
EBIAT 392.18375.90404.4217.21238.29294.31310.33327.22345.03363.80
Depreciation 199.60217.20305.40319.50310.50298.46314.71331.83349.89368.93
Accounts Receivable --42.40-112.70145.50-178.10-6.85-65.59-69.16-72.93-76.90
Inventories --161.70-79.20-31.60128-75.01-32.37-34.13-35.99-37.95
Accounts Payable -152.9080.80-77.80-25.7047.4326.3227.7529.2630.86
Capital Expenditure -188.70-338.40-384-163.60-362.80-311.08-328.02-345.87-364.69-384.54
UFCF 403.08203.50214.72209.21110.19247.26225.37237.64250.57264.21
WACC
PV UFCF 223.02183.35174.37165.84157.72
SUM PV UFCF 904.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) 269.49
Terminal Value 3,038.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,813.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,717.95
Net Debt 2,700.10
Equity Value 17.85
Shares Outstanding 312.90
Equity Value Per Share 0.06