Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)

$31.46

+0.35 (+1.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.55 | 31.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,304.103,623.202,981.903,371.304,203.304,515.354,850.565,210.665,597.506,013.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 656.60811.80561.30711.70880.50931.611,000.771,075.061,154.871,240.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 439.40506.40241.80401.20538.30542.67582.95626.23672.72722.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 217.20305.40319.50310.50342.20388.94417.81448.83482.15517.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 446.10946.50926.10346.10217.60777.77835.51897.54964.171,035.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,053.101,165.801,020.301,198.401,357.801,500.141,611.501,731.141,859.661,997.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 537616.20647.80519.80583.40761.12817.63878.33943.541,013.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 458.90539.70945.60436.201,036.70885.90951.661,022.321,098.211,179.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -338.40-384-163.60-362.80-425.30-426.31-457.95-491.95-528.47-567.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.46
Beta 1.968
Diluted Shares Outstanding 318.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.886
Total Debt 3,250.10
Total Equity 10,008.77
Total Capital 13,258.87
Debt Weighting 24.51
Equity Weighting 75.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,304.103,623.202,981.903,371.304,203.304,515.354,850.565,210.665,597.506,013.05
EBITDA 656.60811.80561.30711.70880.50931.611,000.771,075.061,154.871,240.61
EBIT 439.40506.40241.80401.20538.30542.67582.95626.23672.72722.66
Tax Rate 17.44%20.70%45.53%7.75%24.84%23.25%23.25%23.25%23.25%23.25%
EBIAT 362.78401.56131.71370.12404.59416.49447.41480.62516.31554.64
Depreciation 217.20305.40319.50310.50342.20388.94417.81448.83482.15517.95
Accounts Receivable --112.70145.50-178.10-159.40-142.34-111.37-119.64-128.52-138.06
Inventories --79.20-31.60128-63.60-177.72-56.51-60.70-65.21-70.05
Accounts Payable -80.80405.90-509.40600.50-150.8065.7770.6575.9081.53
Capital Expenditure -338.40-384-163.60-362.80-425.30-426.31-457.95-491.95-528.47-567.71
UFCF 241.58211.86807.41-241.68698.99-91.74305.16327.82352.16378.30
WACC
PV UFCF -82.29245.51236.55227.92219.61
SUM PV UFCF 847.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 385.87
Terminal Value 4,066.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,360.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,207.73
Net Debt 3,032.50
Equity Value 175.23
Shares Outstanding 318.14
Equity Value Per Share 0.55