Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)
$31.46
+0.35 (+1.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,304.10 | 3,623.20 | 2,981.90 | 3,371.30 | 4,203.30 | 4,515.35 | 4,850.56 | 5,210.66 | 5,597.50 | 6,013.05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 656.60 | 811.80 | 561.30 | 711.70 | 880.50 | 931.61 | 1,000.77 | 1,075.06 | 1,154.87 | 1,240.61 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 439.40 | 506.40 | 241.80 | 401.20 | 538.30 | 542.67 | 582.95 | 626.23 | 672.72 | 722.66 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 217.20 | 305.40 | 319.50 | 310.50 | 342.20 | 388.94 | 417.81 | 448.83 | 482.15 | 517.95 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 446.10 | 946.50 | 926.10 | 346.10 | 217.60 | 777.77 | 835.51 | 897.54 | 964.17 | 1,035.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,053.10 | 1,165.80 | 1,020.30 | 1,198.40 | 1,357.80 | 1,500.14 | 1,611.50 | 1,731.14 | 1,859.66 | 1,997.72 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 537 | 616.20 | 647.80 | 519.80 | 583.40 | 761.12 | 817.63 | 878.33 | 943.54 | 1,013.58 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 458.90 | 539.70 | 945.60 | 436.20 | 1,036.70 | 885.90 | 951.66 | 1,022.32 | 1,098.21 | 1,179.74 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -338.40 | -384 | -163.60 | -362.80 | -425.30 | -426.31 | -457.95 | -491.95 | -528.47 | -567.71 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 31.46 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.968 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 318.14 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.84 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.886 |
Total Debt | 3,250.10 |
Total Equity | 10,008.77 |
Total Capital | 13,258.87 |
Debt Weighting | 24.51 |
Equity Weighting | 75.49 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,304.10 | 3,623.20 | 2,981.90 | 3,371.30 | 4,203.30 | 4,515.35 | 4,850.56 | 5,210.66 | 5,597.50 | 6,013.05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 656.60 | 811.80 | 561.30 | 711.70 | 880.50 | 931.61 | 1,000.77 | 1,075.06 | 1,154.87 | 1,240.61 |
EBIT | 439.40 | 506.40 | 241.80 | 401.20 | 538.30 | 542.67 | 582.95 | 626.23 | 672.72 | 722.66 |
Tax Rate | 17.44% | 20.70% | 45.53% | 7.75% | 24.84% | 23.25% | 23.25% | 23.25% | 23.25% | 23.25% |
EBIAT | 362.78 | 401.56 | 131.71 | 370.12 | 404.59 | 416.49 | 447.41 | 480.62 | 516.31 | 554.64 |
Depreciation | 217.20 | 305.40 | 319.50 | 310.50 | 342.20 | 388.94 | 417.81 | 448.83 | 482.15 | 517.95 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -112.70 | 145.50 | -178.10 | -159.40 | -142.34 | -111.37 | -119.64 | -128.52 | -138.06 |
Inventories | - | -79.20 | -31.60 | 128 | -63.60 | -177.72 | -56.51 | -60.70 | -65.21 | -70.05 |
Accounts Payable | - | 80.80 | 405.90 | -509.40 | 600.50 | -150.80 | 65.77 | 70.65 | 75.90 | 81.53 |
Capital Expenditure | -338.40 | -384 | -163.60 | -362.80 | -425.30 | -426.31 | -457.95 | -491.95 | -528.47 | -567.71 |
UFCF | 241.58 | 211.86 | 807.41 | -241.68 | 698.99 | -91.74 | 305.16 | 327.82 | 352.16 | 378.30 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -82.29 | 245.51 | 236.55 | 227.92 | 219.61 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 847.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.49 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 385.87 |
Terminal Value | 4,066.02 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,360.43 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,207.73 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,032.50 |
Equity Value | 175.23 |
Shares Outstanding | 318.14 |
Equity Value Per Share | 0.55 |