Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)
$29.98
+0.52 (+1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,830 | 3,304.10 | 3,623.20 | 2,981.90 | 3,371.30 | 3,554.78 | 3,748.24 | 3,952.23 | 4,167.32 | 4,394.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 634.50 | 672.50 | 815.40 | 351.30 | 568.80 | 667.81 | 704.16 | 742.48 | 782.89 | 825.50 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 434.90 | 455.30 | 510 | 31.80 | 258.30 | 369.35 | 389.45 | 410.65 | 433 | 456.56 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 199.60 | 217.20 | 305.40 | 319.50 | 310.50 | 298.46 | 314.71 | 331.83 | 349.89 | 368.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 611.50 | 446.10 | 946.50 | 926.10 | 346.10 | 729.13 | 768.81 | 810.65 | 854.77 | 901.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,010.70 | 1,053.10 | 1,165.80 | 1,020.30 | 1,198.40 | 1,205.25 | 1,270.85 | 1,340.01 | 1,412.94 | 1,489.84 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 375.30 | 537 | 616.20 | 647.80 | 519.80 | 594.81 | 627.18 | 661.32 | 697.31 | 735.26 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 306 | 458.90 | 539.70 | 461.90 | 436.20 | 483.63 | 509.96 | 537.71 | 566.97 | 597.83 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -188.70 | -338.40 | -384 | -163.60 | -362.80 | -311.08 | -328.02 | -345.87 | -364.69 | -384.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 29.98 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.007 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 312.90 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 7.75 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.42% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.285 |
Total Debt | 3,046.20 |
Total Equity | 9,380.78 |
Total Capital | 12,426.98 |
Debt Weighting | 24.51 |
Equity Weighting | 75.49 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,830 | 3,304.10 | 3,623.20 | 2,981.90 | 3,371.30 | 3,554.78 | 3,748.24 | 3,952.23 | 4,167.32 | 4,394.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 634.50 | 672.50 | 815.40 | 351.30 | 568.80 | 667.81 | 704.16 | 742.48 | 782.89 | 825.50 |
EBIT | 434.90 | 455.30 | 510 | 31.80 | 258.30 | 369.35 | 389.45 | 410.65 | 433 | 456.56 |
Tax Rate | 9.82% | 17.44% | 20.70% | 45.87% | 7.75% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% |
EBIAT | 392.18 | 375.90 | 404.42 | 17.21 | 238.29 | 294.31 | 310.33 | 327.22 | 345.03 | 363.80 |
Depreciation | 199.60 | 217.20 | 305.40 | 319.50 | 310.50 | 298.46 | 314.71 | 331.83 | 349.89 | 368.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -42.40 | -112.70 | 145.50 | -178.10 | -6.85 | -65.59 | -69.16 | -72.93 | -76.90 |
Inventories | - | -161.70 | -79.20 | -31.60 | 128 | -75.01 | -32.37 | -34.13 | -35.99 | -37.95 |
Accounts Payable | - | 152.90 | 80.80 | -77.80 | -25.70 | 47.43 | 26.32 | 27.75 | 29.26 | 30.86 |
Capital Expenditure | -188.70 | -338.40 | -384 | -163.60 | -362.80 | -311.08 | -328.02 | -345.87 | -364.69 | -384.54 |
UFCF | 403.08 | 203.50 | 214.72 | 209.21 | 110.19 | 247.26 | 225.37 | 237.64 | 250.57 | 264.21 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 223.02 | 183.35 | 174.37 | 165.84 | 157.72 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 904.29 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.87 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 269.49 |
Terminal Value | 3,038.27 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,813.66 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,717.95 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,700.10 |
Equity Value | 17.85 |
Shares Outstanding | 312.90 |
Equity Value Per Share | 0.06 |