Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)

$31.46

+0.35 (+1.13%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 0.55 | 31.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	4,203.30	4,515.35	4,850.56	5,210.66	5,597.50	6,013.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	656.60	811.80	561.30	711.70	880.50	931.61	1,000.77	1,075.06	1,154.87	1,240.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	439.40	506.40	241.80	401.20	538.30	542.67	582.95	626.23	672.72	722.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	217.20	305.40	319.50	310.50	342.20	388.94	417.81	448.83	482.15	517.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	446.10	946.50	926.10	346.10	217.60	777.77	835.51	897.54	964.17	1,035.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,053.10	1,165.80	1,020.30	1,198.40	1,357.80	1,500.14	1,611.50	1,731.14	1,859.66	1,997.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	537	616.20	647.80	519.80	583.40	761.12	817.63	878.33	943.54	1,013.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	458.90	539.70	945.60	436.20	1,036.70	885.90	951.66	1,022.32	1,098.21	1,179.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-425.30	-426.31	-457.95	-491.95	-528.47	-567.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 31.46
Beta	1.968
Diluted Shares Outstanding	318.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.84
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.886
Total Debt	3,250.10
Total Equity	10,008.77
Total Capital	13,258.87
Debt Weighting	24.51
Equity Weighting	75.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	4,203.30	4,515.35	4,850.56	5,210.66	5,597.50	6,013.05
EBITDA	656.60	811.80	561.30	711.70	880.50	931.61	1,000.77	1,075.06	1,154.87	1,240.61
EBIT	439.40	506.40	241.80	401.20	538.30	542.67	582.95	626.23	672.72	722.66
Tax Rate	17.44%	20.70%	45.53%	7.75%	24.84%	23.25%	23.25%	23.25%	23.25%	23.25%
EBIAT	362.78	401.56	131.71	370.12	404.59	416.49	447.41	480.62	516.31	554.64
Depreciation	217.20	305.40	319.50	310.50	342.20	388.94	417.81	448.83	482.15	517.95
Accounts Receivable	-	-112.70	145.50	-178.10	-159.40	-142.34	-111.37	-119.64	-128.52	-138.06
Inventories	-	-79.20	-31.60	128	-63.60	-177.72	-56.51	-60.70	-65.21	-70.05
Accounts Payable	-	80.80	405.90	-509.40	600.50	-150.80	65.77	70.65	75.90	81.53
Capital Expenditure	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-425.30	-426.31	-457.95	-491.95	-528.47	-567.71
UFCF	241.58	211.86	807.41	-241.68	698.99	-91.74	305.16	327.82	352.16	378.30
WACC
PV UFCF						-82.29	245.51	236.55	227.92	219.61
SUM PV UFCF										847.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.49
Free cash flow (t + 1)	385.87
Terminal Value	4,066.02
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,360.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,207.73
Net Debt	3,032.50
Equity Value	175.23
Shares Outstanding	318.14
Equity Value Per Share	0.55