Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)

$29.98

+0.52 (+1.77%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 0.06 | 29.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,830	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	3,554.78	3,748.24	3,952.23	4,167.32	4,394.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	634.50	672.50	815.40	351.30	568.80	667.81	704.16	742.48	782.89	825.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	434.90	455.30	510	31.80	258.30	369.35	389.45	410.65	433	456.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	199.60	217.20	305.40	319.50	310.50	298.46	314.71	331.83	349.89	368.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	611.50	446.10	946.50	926.10	346.10	729.13	768.81	810.65	854.77	901.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,010.70	1,053.10	1,165.80	1,020.30	1,198.40	1,205.25	1,270.85	1,340.01	1,412.94	1,489.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	375.30	537	616.20	647.80	519.80	594.81	627.18	661.32	697.31	735.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	306	458.90	539.70	461.90	436.20	483.63	509.96	537.71	566.97	597.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-188.70	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-311.08	-328.02	-345.87	-364.69	-384.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 29.98
Beta	2.007
Diluted Shares Outstanding	312.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	7.75
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.285
Total Debt	3,046.20
Total Equity	9,380.78
Total Capital	12,426.98
Debt Weighting	24.51
Equity Weighting	75.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,830	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	3,554.78	3,748.24	3,952.23	4,167.32	4,394.12
EBITDA	634.50	672.50	815.40	351.30	568.80	667.81	704.16	742.48	782.89	825.50
EBIT	434.90	455.30	510	31.80	258.30	369.35	389.45	410.65	433	456.56
Tax Rate	9.82%	17.44%	20.70%	45.87%	7.75%	20.32%	20.32%	20.32%	20.32%	20.32%
EBIAT	392.18	375.90	404.42	17.21	238.29	294.31	310.33	327.22	345.03	363.80
Depreciation	199.60	217.20	305.40	319.50	310.50	298.46	314.71	331.83	349.89	368.93
Accounts Receivable	-	-42.40	-112.70	145.50	-178.10	-6.85	-65.59	-69.16	-72.93	-76.90
Inventories	-	-161.70	-79.20	-31.60	128	-75.01	-32.37	-34.13	-35.99	-37.95
Accounts Payable	-	152.90	80.80	-77.80	-25.70	47.43	26.32	27.75	29.26	30.86
Capital Expenditure	-188.70	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-311.08	-328.02	-345.87	-364.69	-384.54
UFCF	403.08	203.50	214.72	209.21	110.19	247.26	225.37	237.64	250.57	264.21
WACC
PV UFCF						223.02	183.35	174.37	165.84	157.72
SUM PV UFCF										904.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.87
Free cash flow (t + 1)	269.49
Terminal Value	3,038.27
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,813.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,717.95
Net Debt	2,700.10
Equity Value	17.85
Shares Outstanding	312.90
Equity Value Per Share	0.06