Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)

$34

-0.35 (-1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 74.87 | 34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,938.309,538.4011,054.4011,184.7011,535.9012,700.1313,981.8715,392.9516,946.4518,656.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,079.30847.901,920.502,302.601,936.101,961.642,159.612,377.562,617.512,881.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 822.30514.901,531.601,914.901,560.701,530.661,685.141,855.212,042.442,248.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 257333388.90387.70375.40430.97474.47522.35575.07633.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 128236.60553.3079.2083.30267.42294.41324.13356.84392.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 569.40831.70860.80793.90867.40972.741,070.911,178.991,297.981,428.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 988.701,571.701,377.901,7341,939.701,872.382,061.342,269.382,498.412,750.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 905.301,255.301,525.601,655.901,864.601,761.101,938.842,134.512,349.932,587.09
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -251.60-353.10-369.50-506.40-464.40-476.69-524.80-577.76-636.07-700.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34
Beta 0.565
Diluted Shares Outstanding 487.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.544
Total Debt 9,176.80
Total Equity 16,585.20
Total Capital 25,762
Debt Weighting 35.62
Equity Weighting 64.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,938.309,538.4011,054.4011,184.7011,535.9012,700.1313,981.8715,392.9516,946.4518,656.73
EBITDA 1,079.30847.901,920.502,302.601,936.101,961.642,159.612,377.562,617.512,881.68
EBIT 822.30514.901,531.601,914.901,560.701,530.661,685.141,855.212,042.442,248.57
Tax Rate 7.59%17.61%13.38%7.91%14.05%12.11%12.11%12.11%12.11%12.11%
EBIAT 759.88424.221,326.631,763.511,341.411,345.321,481.101,630.581,795.141,976.31
Depreciation 257333388.90387.70375.40430.97474.47522.35575.07633.11
Accounts Receivable --262.30-29.1066.90-73.50-105.34-98.17-108.08-118.99-131
Inventories --583193.80-356.10-205.7067.32-188.97-208.04-229.03-252.15
Accounts Payable -350270.30130.30208.70-103.50177.74195.67215.42237.16
Capital Expenditure -251.60-353.10-369.50-506.40-464.40-476.69-524.80-577.76-636.07-700.27
UFCF 765.28-91.181,781.031,485.911,181.911,158.091,321.361,454.721,601.531,763.16
WACC
PV UFCF 1,097.821,187.411,239.211,293.271,349.70
SUM PV UFCF 6,167.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,798.43
Terminal Value 51,530.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 39,446.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,614.11
Net Debt 9,093.50
Equity Value 36,520.61
Shares Outstanding 487.80
Equity Value Per Share 74.87