Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)

$60.53

+0.85 (+1.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 30.17 | 60.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,502.931,361.191,351.611,348.991,777.161,872.291,972.512,078.092,189.332,306.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 171.36125.2778.7249.74235.02162.29170.98180.13189.78199.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 117.3470.6220.62-9.74166.6386.7891.4396.32101.48106.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 54.0354.6558.1059.4868.3975.5179.5683.8188.3093.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 331.02319.43232.29169.51174.51318.53335.58353.54372.46392.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 85.8471.7698.37126.64219.40149.76157.78166.23175.13184.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 168.64172.24187.22218.37263.32257.37271.14285.66300.95317.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 37.8439.2155.9052.7882.0567.6471.2675.0879.1083.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.67-67.99-124.18-95.07-72.40-99.65-104.99-110.61-116.53-122.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 60.53
Beta -0.117
Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.66
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 22.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.411
Total Debt 1.44
Total Equity 2,945.15
Total Capital 2,946.59
Debt Weighting 0.05
Equity Weighting 99.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,502.931,361.191,351.611,348.991,777.161,872.291,972.512,078.092,189.332,306.52
EBITDA 171.36125.2778.7249.74235.02162.29170.98180.13189.78199.93
EBIT 117.3470.6220.62-9.74166.6386.7891.4396.32101.48106.91
Tax Rate -7.33%23.41%8.32%120.71%20.10%33.04%33.04%33.04%33.04%33.04%
EBIAT 125.9354.0818.912.02133.1458.1161.2264.4967.9571.58
Depreciation 54.0354.6558.1059.4868.3975.5179.5683.8188.3093.03
Accounts Receivable -14.08-26.62-28.26-92.7669.64-8.02-8.45-8.90-9.37
Inventories --3.59-14.98-31.16-44.945.95-13.78-14.51-15.29-16.11
Accounts Payable -1.3716.69-3.1229.26-14.413.623.814.024.23
Capital Expenditure -19.67-67.99-124.18-95.07-72.40-99.65-104.99-110.61-116.53-122.76
UFCF 160.2952.60-72.07-96.1220.6995.1517.6118.5619.5520.60
WACC
PV UFCF 9216.4716.7817.0917.41
SUM PV UFCF 159.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 21.01
Terminal Value 1,479.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,250.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,410.27
Net Debt -57.64
Equity Value 1,467.91
Shares Outstanding 48.66
Equity Value Per Share 30.17