Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cara Therapeutics, Inc. (CARA)
$12
-0.27 (-2.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 0.91 | 13.47 | 19.89 | 135.08 | 23.03 | 133.70 | 776.30 | 4,507.33 | 26,170.21 | 151,947.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -57.83 | -74.03 | -106.99 | 7.93 | -88.19 | -2,089.31 | -12,130.82 | -70,433.26 | -408,945.61 | -2,374,396.72 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -58.33 | -74.40 | -107.19 | 7.72 | -88.44 | -2,105.17 | -12,222.90 | -70,967.93 | -412,049.93 | -2,392,420.87 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 15.86 | 92.09 | 534.66 | 3,104.33 | 18,024.16 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 92.57 | 161.38 | 155.01 | 180.92 | 167.04 | 3,475.82 | 20,181.10 | 117,174.36 | 680,331.11 | 3,950,099.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 0.85 | 1.59 | 1.79 | 2.06 | 1.15 | 32.37 | 187.97 | 1,091.36 | 6,336.58 | 36,791.11 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | 2.58 | 15 | 87.11 | 505.77 | 2,936.59 | 17,050.27 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3.83 | 4.37 | 9.10 | 4.89 | 5.63 | 140.81 | 817.56 | 4,746.85 | 27,560.87 | 160,022.34 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -0.04 | -1.99 | -11.53 | -66.95 | -388.72 | -2,256.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 12 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.953 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.72 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.017 |
Total Debt | 3.67 |
Total Equity | 608.63 |
Total Capital | 612.30 |
Debt Weighting | 0.60 |
Equity Weighting | 99.40 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 0.91 | 13.47 | 19.89 | 135.08 | 23.03 | 133.70 | 776.30 | 4,507.33 | 26,170.21 | 151,947.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -57.83 | -74.03 | -106.99 | 7.93 | -88.19 | -2,089.31 | -12,130.82 | -70,433.26 | -408,945.61 | -2,374,396.72 |
EBIT | -58.33 | -74.40 | -107.19 | 7.72 | -88.44 | -2,105.17 | -12,222.90 | -70,967.93 | -412,049.93 | -2,392,420.87 |
Tax Rate | 0.35% | 0.52% | 0.76% | -8.95% | 0.00% | -1.46% | -1.46% | -1.46% | -1.46% | -1.46% |
EBIAT | -58.12 | -74.01 | -106.37 | 8.41 | -88.44 | -2,135.98 | -12,401.80 | -72,006.62 | -418,080.77 | -2,427,436.77 |
Depreciation | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 15.86 | 92.09 | 534.66 | 3,104.33 | 18,024.16 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -0.74 | -0.20 | -0.28 | 0.91 | -31.22 | -155.59 | -903.39 | -5,245.22 | -30,454.52 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | -12.42 | -72.11 | -418.66 | -2,430.82 | -14,113.68 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.54 | 4.73 | -4.21 | 0.73 | 135.18 | 676.75 | 3,929.29 | 22,814.02 | 132,461.47 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -0.04 | -1.99 | -11.53 | -66.95 | -388.72 | -2,256.99 |
UFCF | -57.69 | -73.91 | -101.66 | 3.79 | -86.59 | -2,030.56 | -11,872.20 | -68,931.68 | -400,227.19 | -2,323,776.33 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | - |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,370,251.86 |
Terminal Value | - |
Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | - |
---|---|
Net Debt | -9.78 |
Equity Value | - |
Shares Outstanding | 50.72 |
Equity Value Per Share | - |