Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cascades Inc. (CAS.TO)

$8.18

+0.02 (+0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.44 | 8.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,3214,6494,9965,1573,9563,906.443,857.503,809.173,761.453,714.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 738448517637510486.81480.71474.68468.74462.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 523204228338258266.66263.32260.02256.77253.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 215244289299252220.14217.38214.66211.97209.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 98133155389175157.81155.83153.88151.95150.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 581664637682529524.05517.49511504.60498.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 523605598569494473.52467.59461.73455.95450.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 488566589593518467.61461.75455.96450.25444.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -193-353-266-263-301-235.11-232.16-229.25-226.38-223.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.18
Beta 0.086
Diluted Shares Outstanding 102.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 526.32
After-tax Cost of Debt -24.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.368
Total Debt 1,525
Total Equity 841.74
Total Capital 2,366.74
Debt Weighting 64.43
Equity Weighting 35.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,3214,6494,9965,1573,9563,906.443,857.503,809.173,761.453,714.32
EBITDA 738448517637510486.81480.71474.68468.74462.86
EBIT 523204228338258266.66263.32260.02256.77253.55
Tax Rate -14.97%58.74%40.52%29.03%526.32%127.93%127.93%127.93%127.93%127.93%
EBIAT 601.2784.17135.62239.87-1,099.89-74.47-73.54-72.62-71.71-70.81
Depreciation 215244289299252220.14217.38214.66211.97209.32
Accounts Receivable --8327-451534.956.576.486.406.32
Inventories --827297520.485.935.865.785.71
Accounts Payable -78234-75-50.39-5.86-5.78-5.71-5.64
Capital Expenditure -193-353-266-263-301-235.11-232.16-229.25-226.38-223.55
UFCF 623.27-111.83215.62263.87-995.89-114.41-81.68-80.66-79.65-78.65
WACC
PV UFCF -133.19-110.70-127.25-146.28-168.16
SUM PV UFCF -685.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -14.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) -80.22
Terminal Value 498.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,065.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 379.79
Net Debt 1,351
Equity Value -971.21
Shares Outstanding 102.90
Equity Value Per Share -9.44