Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Celanese Corporation (CE)

$141.35

-0.36 (-0.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 137.25 | 141.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,155	6,297	5,655	8,537	9,673	10,690.69	11,815.44	13,058.53	14,432.41	15,950.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,547	1,009	860	2,212	1,751	2,071.11	2,289.01	2,529.83	2,796	3,090.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,198	653	504	1,834	1,273	1,511.01	1,669.98	1,845.68	2,039.86	2,254.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	349	356	356	378	478	560.10	619.03	684.16	756.14	835.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	470	503	1,488	546	1,508	1,343.93	1,485.32	1,641.59	1,814.30	2,005.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,318	1,181	1,242	1,667	2,054	2,135.99	2,360.72	2,609.09	2,883.58	3,186.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,046	1,038	978	1,524	2,808	2,037.19	2,251.52	2,488.40	2,750.20	3,039.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	819	780	797	1,160	1,518	1,437	1,588.19	1,755.28	1,939.95	2,144.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-337	-370	-364	-467	-543	-600.95	-664.18	-734.06	-811.29	-896.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 141.35
Beta	1.317
Diluted Shares Outstanding	109.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-33.29
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.471
Total Debt	15,043
Total Equity	15,440.42
Total Capital	30,483.42
Debt Weighting	49.35
Equity Weighting	50.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,155	6,297	5,655	8,537	9,673	10,690.69	11,815.44	13,058.53	14,432.41	15,950.83
EBITDA	1,547	1,009	860	2,212	1,751	2,071.11	2,289.01	2,529.83	2,796	3,090.16
EBIT	1,198	653	504	1,834	1,273	1,511.01	1,669.98	1,845.68	2,039.86	2,254.47
Tax Rate	20.07%	13.77%	11.82%	15.93%	-33.29%	5.66%	5.66%	5.66%	5.66%	5.66%
EBIAT	957.61	563.11	444.44	1,541.93	1,696.74	1,425.52	1,575.50	1,741.26	1,924.45	2,126.92
Depreciation	349	356	356	378	478	560.10	619.03	684.16	756.14	835.69
Accounts Receivable	-	137	-61	-425	-387	-81.99	-224.73	-248.37	-274.50	-303.38
Inventories	-	8	60	-546	-1,284	770.81	-214.33	-236.88	-261.80	-289.35
Accounts Payable	-	-39	17	363	358	-81	151.19	167.09	184.67	204.10
Capital Expenditure	-337	-370	-364	-467	-543	-600.95	-664.18	-734.06	-811.29	-896.64
UFCF	969.61	655.11	452.44	844.93	318.74	1,992.50	1,242.48	1,373.20	1,517.67	1,677.35
WACC
PV UFCF						1,855.21	1,077.16	1,108.46	1,140.67	1,173.82
SUM PV UFCF										6,355.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.40
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,710.89
Terminal Value	31,683.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	22,172.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	28,527.50
Net Debt	13,535
Equity Value	14,992.50
Shares Outstanding	109.24
Equity Value Per Share	137.25