Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Celanese Corporation (CE)

$94.76

-2.14 (-2.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 351.37 | 94.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1407,1556,2975,6558,5379,503.9810,580.4911,778.9413,113.1314,598.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,4881,9731,4472,6972,6892,926.833,258.353,627.434,038.304,495.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,1781,6241,0912,3412,3112,426.862,701.753,007.783,348.473,727.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 310349356356378499.97556.60619.65689.83767.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6084705031,4885461,086.641,209.731,346.751,499.301,669.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2301,3181,1811,2421,6671,876.042,088.542,325.112,588.482,881.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9001,0461,0389781,5241,537.881,712.081,9062,121.902,362.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8078197807971,1601,229.021,368.231,523.211,695.751,887.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -267-337-370-364-467-510.20-567.99-632.33-703.95-783.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 94.76
Beta 1.218
Diluted Shares Outstanding 118.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.509
Total Debt 4,204
Total Equity 11,229.06
Total Capital 15,433.06
Debt Weighting 27.24
Equity Weighting 72.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1407,1556,2975,6558,5379,503.9810,580.4911,778.9413,113.1314,598.44
EBITDA 1,4881,9731,4472,6972,6892,926.833,258.353,627.434,038.304,495.72
EBIT 1,1781,6241,0912,3412,3112,426.862,701.753,007.783,348.473,727.75
Tax Rate 21.58%20.07%13.77%11.82%15.93%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%
EBIAT 923.771,298.12940.822,064.361,942.972,023.252,252.422,507.562,791.583,107.79
Depreciation 310349356356378499.97556.60619.65689.83767.97
Accounts Receivable --88137-61-425-209.04-212.50-236.57-263.36-293.19
Inventories --146860-546-13.88-174.20-193.93-215.89-240.35
Accounts Payable -12-391736369.02139.21154.98172.53192.08
Capital Expenditure -267-337-370-364-467-510.20-567.99-632.33-703.95-783.69
UFCF 966.771,088.121,032.822,072.361,245.971,859.121,993.552,219.362,470.752,750.60
WACC
PV UFCF 1,730.861,727.981,790.991,856.301,924
SUM PV UFCF 9,030.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,805.62
Terminal Value 51,859.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 36,275.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,305.14
Net Debt 3,668
Equity Value 41,637.14
Shares Outstanding 118.50
Equity Value Per Share 351.37