Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

$6.66

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.24 | 6.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,589.081,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,441.412,694.012,972.743,280.323,619.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 162.5946.1019.10-11.80-84.7044.6449.2654.3659.9866.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 78.34-44-64.10-94.80-167.30-70.08-77.33-85.33-94.16-103.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 84.2590.1083.208382.60114.72126.59139.69154.14170.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 167.2138.9038.9081.6029102.98113.63125.39138.36152.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 53.44105.20100.2061.3088.90108.46119.68132.06145.73160.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 317.47343.80320.60291.10425.60453.94500.90552.73609.92673.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 89.93119.4097.10106.10186.50157.68173.99192211.86233.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -31.84-83-59.60-13.40-83-69.43-76.61-84.54-93.29-102.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.66
Beta 2.531
Diluted Shares Outstanding 90.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.703
Total Debt 474.10
Total Equity 600.73
Total Capital 1,074.83
Debt Weighting 44.11
Equity Weighting 55.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,589.081,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,441.412,694.012,972.743,280.323,619.71
EBITDA 162.5946.1019.10-11.80-84.7044.6449.2654.3659.9866.19
EBIT 78.34-44-64.10-94.80-167.30-70.08-77.33-85.33-94.16-103.90
Tax Rate 12.26%6.23%5.50%2.38%15.44%8.36%8.36%8.36%8.36%8.36%
EBIAT 68.73-41.26-60.58-92.55-141.48-64.22-70.87-78.20-86.29-95.22
Depreciation 84.2590.1083.208382.60114.72126.59139.69154.14170.09
Accounts Receivable --51.76538.90-27.60-19.56-11.22-12.38-13.66-15.08
Inventories --26.3323.2029.50-134.50-28.34-46.97-51.83-57.19-63.10
Accounts Payable -29.47-22.30980.40-28.8216.311819.8621.92
Capital Expenditure -31.84-83-59.60-13.40-83-69.43-76.61-84.54-93.29-102.94
UFCF 121.14-82.78-31.0854.45-223.58-95.64-62.76-69.25-76.42-84.32
WACC
PV UFCF -86.03-50.78-50.40-50.03-49.66
SUM PV UFCF -286.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) -86.01
Terminal Value -937.94
Present Value of Terminal Value -552.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -839.29
Net Debt 445.10
Equity Value -1,284.39
Shares Outstanding 90.20
Equity Value Per Share -14.24