Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

$96.25

-0.81 (-0.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 62.88 | 96.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,1304,4294,5904,1246,5387,506.578,618.629,895.4211,361.3713,044.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9651,5251,7181,4112,2632,462.972,827.853,246.773,727.774,280.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 826378435191,3751,026.141,178.161,352.701,553.091,783.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8838888758928881,436.831,649.681,894.082,174.672,496.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8356822877631,6281,280.191,469.841,687.591,937.602,224.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 307235242265497481.01552.27634.08728.02835.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 275309351287408517.68594.38682.43783.53899.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 991017885110151.94174.45200.29229.96264.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -473-422-404-309-524-679.95-780.68-896.33-1,029.11-1,181.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 96.25
Beta 1.017
Diluted Shares Outstanding 207.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 40.57
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.605
Total Debt 3,716
Total Equity 19,953.10
Total Capital 23,669.10
Debt Weighting 15.70
Equity Weighting 84.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,1304,4294,5904,1246,5387,506.578,618.629,895.4211,361.3713,044.50
EBITDA 9651,5251,7181,4112,2632,462.972,827.853,246.773,727.774,280.01
EBIT 826378435191,3751,026.141,178.161,352.701,553.091,783.18
Tax Rate 386.40%46.98%36.14%31.53%40.57%108.33%108.33%108.33%108.33%108.33%
EBIAT -234.85337.71538.34355.34817.16-85.43-98.09-112.62-129.30-148.46
Depreciation 8838888758928881,436.831,649.681,894.082,174.672,496.84
Accounts Receivable -72-7-23-23215.99-71.26-81.82-93.94-107.85
Inventories --34-4264-121-109.68-76.69-88.05-101.10-116.08
Accounts Payable -2-2372541.9422.5125.8429.6734.07
Capital Expenditure -473-422-404-309-524-679.95-780.68-896.33-1,029.11-1,181.57
UFCF 175.15843.71937.34986.34853.16619.70645.48741.10850.89976.95
WACC
PV UFCF 575.44556.59593.41632.67674.52
SUM PV UFCF 3,032.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 996.49
Terminal Value 17,512.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,091.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,124.20
Net Debt 2,088
Equity Value 13,036.20
Shares Outstanding 207.30
Equity Value Per Share 62.88