Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)

$1.55

+0.04 (+2.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -22.73 | 1.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 669.92157.40128.71250.53231.27226.77222.36218.04213.80209.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 29.18-174.249.3351.4935.57-28.65-28.09-27.54-27.01-26.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.94-187.47-0.3840.7027.17-41.26-40.45-39.67-38.90-38.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.2413.239.7110.798.4012.6112.3612.1211.8911.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 16.340.9211.166.358.448.117.957.807.647.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.3613.8210.378.7710.3813.8613.5913.3213.0612.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 67.4115.2912.9940.3449.2230.5029.9129.3328.7628.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-13.53-7.22-7.08-6.94-6.81-6.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.55
Beta 1.594
Diluted Shares Outstanding 40.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.025
Total Debt 62.80
Total Equity 62.17
Total Capital 124.97
Debt Weighting 50.25
Equity Weighting 49.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 669.92157.40128.71250.53231.27226.77222.36218.04213.80209.65
EBITDA 29.18-174.249.3351.4935.57-28.65-28.09-27.54-27.01-26.48
EBIT 2.94-187.47-0.3840.7027.17-41.26-40.45-39.67-38.90-38.14
Tax Rate 41.42%-385.43%9.96%25.28%27.93%-56.17%-56.17%-56.17%-56.17%-56.17%
EBIAT 1.72-910.02-0.3430.4119.58-64.43-63.18-61.95-60.74-59.56
Depreciation 26.2413.239.7110.798.4012.6112.3612.1211.8911.66
Accounts Receivable -24.543.461.60-1.61-3.470.270.260.260.25
Inventories -52.122.29-27.35-8.8718.710.590.580.570.56
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-13.53-7.22-7.08-6.94-6.81-6.68
UFCF -0.34-822.6012.909.043.97-43.80-57.03-55.92-54.83-53.77
WACC
PV UFCF -40.63-49.07-44.63-40.59-36.92
SUM PV UFCF -211.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -54.84
Terminal Value -943.96
Present Value of Terminal Value -648.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -859.95
Net Debt 51.90
Equity Value -911.85
Shares Outstanding 40.11
Equity Value Per Share -22.73