Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)
$1.55
+0.04 (+2.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 231.27 | 226.77 | 222.36 | 218.04 | 213.80 | 209.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 29.18 | -174.24 | 9.33 | 51.49 | 35.57 | -28.65 | -28.09 | -27.54 | -27.01 | -26.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.94 | -187.47 | -0.38 | 40.70 | 27.17 | -41.26 | -40.45 | -39.67 | -38.90 | -38.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 26.24 | 13.23 | 9.71 | 10.79 | 8.40 | 12.61 | 12.36 | 12.12 | 11.89 | 11.66 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.34 | 0.92 | 11.16 | 6.35 | 8.44 | 8.11 | 7.95 | 7.80 | 7.64 | 7.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 38.36 | 13.82 | 10.37 | 8.77 | 10.38 | 13.86 | 13.59 | 13.32 | 13.06 | 12.81 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 67.41 | 15.29 | 12.99 | 40.34 | 49.22 | 30.50 | 29.91 | 29.33 | 28.76 | 28.20 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -13.53 | -7.22 | -7.08 | -6.94 | -6.81 | -6.68 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.594 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 40.11 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.93 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.025 |
| Total Debt | 62.80 |
| Total Equity | 62.17 |
| Total Capital | 124.97 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 231.27 | 226.77 | 222.36 | 218.04 | 213.80 | 209.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 29.18 | -174.24 | 9.33 | 51.49 | 35.57 | -28.65 | -28.09 | -27.54 | -27.01 | -26.48 |
| EBIT | 2.94 | -187.47 | -0.38 | 40.70 | 27.17 | -41.26 | -40.45 | -39.67 | -38.90 | -38.14 |
| Tax Rate | 41.42% | -385.43% | 9.96% | 25.28% | 27.93% | -56.17% | -56.17% | -56.17% | -56.17% | -56.17% |
| EBIAT | 1.72 | -910.02 | -0.34 | 30.41 | 19.58 | -64.43 | -63.18 | -61.95 | -60.74 | -59.56 |
| Depreciation | 26.24 | 13.23 | 9.71 | 10.79 | 8.40 | 12.61 | 12.36 | 12.12 | 11.89 | 11.66 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 24.54 | 3.46 | 1.60 | -1.61 | -3.47 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Inventories | - | 52.12 | 2.29 | -27.35 | -8.87 | 18.71 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -13.53 | -7.22 | -7.08 | -6.94 | -6.81 | -6.68 |
| UFCF | -0.34 | -822.60 | 12.90 | 9.04 | 3.97 | -43.80 | -57.03 | -55.92 | -54.83 | -53.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -40.63 | -49.07 | -44.63 | -40.59 | -36.92 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -211.83 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -54.84 |
| Terminal Value | -943.96 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -648.12 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -859.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 51.90 |
| Equity Value | -911.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 40.11 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -22.73 |