Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)

$1.78

+0.10 (+5.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -40.05 | 1.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 469.73669.92157.40128.71250.53277.17306.65339.25375.33415.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.7529.18-174.249.3351.49-38.26-42.33-46.83-51.81-57.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26.442.94-187.47-0.3840.70-53.82-59.54-65.87-72.88-80.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18.3126.2413.239.7110.7915.5617.2219.0521.0723.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 16.8616.340.9211.166.359.8810.9312.0913.3814.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.2438.3613.8210.378.7718.9620.9823.2125.6728.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 61.9067.4115.2912.9940.3432.7936.2840.1444.4049.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -73.11-28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-14.21-15.72-17.40-19.25-21.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.78
Beta 1.615
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.139
Total Debt 59.38
Total Equity 80.46
Total Capital 139.84
Debt Weighting 42.46
Equity Weighting 57.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 469.73669.92157.40128.71250.53277.17306.65339.25375.33415.24
EBITDA 44.7529.18-174.249.3351.49-38.26-42.33-46.83-51.81-57.32
EBIT 26.442.94-187.47-0.3840.70-53.82-59.54-65.87-72.88-80.63
Tax Rate 15.47%41.42%-385.43%9.96%25.28%-58.66%-58.66%-58.66%-58.66%-58.66%
EBIAT 22.351.72-910.02-0.3430.41-85.39-94.47-104.51-115.63-127.92
Depreciation 18.3126.2413.239.7110.7915.5617.2219.0521.0723.31
Accounts Receivable --0.1324.543.461.60-10.19-2.02-2.23-2.47-2.73
Inventories --5.5152.122.29-27.357.55-3.49-3.86-4.27-4.72
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -73.11-28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-14.21-15.72-17.40-19.25-21.29
UFCF -32.45-5.98-822.6012.909.04-86.68-98.48-108.95-120.54-133.35
WACC
PV UFCF -79.73-83.33-84.81-86.31-87.83
SUM PV UFCF -422.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) -136.02
Terminal Value -2,027.15
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,335.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,757.19
Net Debt 53.03
Equity Value -1,810.22
Shares Outstanding 45.20
Equity Value Per Share -40.05