Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)
$1.78
+0.10 (+5.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 469.73 | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 277.17 | 306.65 | 339.25 | 375.33 | 415.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 44.75 | 29.18 | -174.24 | 9.33 | 51.49 | -38.26 | -42.33 | -46.83 | -51.81 | -57.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 26.44 | 2.94 | -187.47 | -0.38 | 40.70 | -53.82 | -59.54 | -65.87 | -72.88 | -80.63 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.31 | 26.24 | 13.23 | 9.71 | 10.79 | 15.56 | 17.22 | 19.05 | 21.07 | 23.31 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.86 | 16.34 | 0.92 | 11.16 | 6.35 | 9.88 | 10.93 | 12.09 | 13.38 | 14.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 38.24 | 38.36 | 13.82 | 10.37 | 8.77 | 18.96 | 20.98 | 23.21 | 25.67 | 28.40 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 61.90 | 67.41 | 15.29 | 12.99 | 40.34 | 32.79 | 36.28 | 40.14 | 44.40 | 49.13 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -73.11 | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -14.21 | -15.72 | -17.40 | -19.25 | -21.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.78 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.615 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.139 |
| Total Debt | 59.38 |
| Total Equity | 80.46 |
| Total Capital | 139.84 |
| Debt Weighting | 42.46 |
| Equity Weighting | 57.54 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 469.73 | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 277.17 | 306.65 | 339.25 | 375.33 | 415.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 44.75 | 29.18 | -174.24 | 9.33 | 51.49 | -38.26 | -42.33 | -46.83 | -51.81 | -57.32 |
| EBIT | 26.44 | 2.94 | -187.47 | -0.38 | 40.70 | -53.82 | -59.54 | -65.87 | -72.88 | -80.63 |
| Tax Rate | 15.47% | 41.42% | -385.43% | 9.96% | 25.28% | -58.66% | -58.66% | -58.66% | -58.66% | -58.66% |
| EBIAT | 22.35 | 1.72 | -910.02 | -0.34 | 30.41 | -85.39 | -94.47 | -104.51 | -115.63 | -127.92 |
| Depreciation | 18.31 | 26.24 | 13.23 | 9.71 | 10.79 | 15.56 | 17.22 | 19.05 | 21.07 | 23.31 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.13 | 24.54 | 3.46 | 1.60 | -10.19 | -2.02 | -2.23 | -2.47 | -2.73 |
| Inventories | - | -5.51 | 52.12 | 2.29 | -27.35 | 7.55 | -3.49 | -3.86 | -4.27 | -4.72 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -73.11 | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -14.21 | -15.72 | -17.40 | -19.25 | -21.29 |
| UFCF | -32.45 | -5.98 | -822.60 | 12.90 | 9.04 | -86.68 | -98.48 | -108.95 | -120.54 | -133.35 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -79.73 | -83.33 | -84.81 | -86.31 | -87.83 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -422.01 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -136.02 |
| Terminal Value | -2,027.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,335.17 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,757.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 53.03 |
| Equity Value | -1,810.22 |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -40.05 |