Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Centerra Gold Inc. (CG.TO)
$6.91
-0.02 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,129.34 | 1,375.33 | 1,688.68 | 900.14 | 850.19 | 833.87 | 817.87 | 802.16 | 786.77 | 771.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 309.43 | 152.10 | 735.73 | -298.64 | 59.67 | 93.18 | 91.39 | 89.63 | 87.91 | 86.22 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 93.18 | 91.39 | 89.63 | 87.91 | 86.22 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 151.71 | 42.72 | 548.66 | 949.40 | 532.75 | 362.17 | 355.22 | 348.40 | 341.71 | 335.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 59.56 | 90.43 | 66.11 | 76.84 | 117.16 | 63.51 | 62.29 | 61.09 | 59.92 | 58.77 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 596.91 | 774.06 | 580.59 | 221.22 | 316.80 | 342.48 | 335.91 | 329.46 | 323.13 | 316.93 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 121.97 | 166.18 | 155.65 | 67 | 111.22 | 87.77 | 86.08 | 84.43 | 82.81 | 81.22 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -285.87 | -299.44 | -326.24 | -92.50 | -80.93 | -143.76 | -141 | -138.29 | -135.64 | -133.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.91 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.984 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 296.63 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -73.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.456 |
| Total Debt | 13.97 |
| Total Equity | 2,049.71 |
| Total Capital | 2,063.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,129.34 | 1,375.33 | 1,688.68 | 900.14 | 850.19 | 833.87 | 817.87 | 802.16 | 786.77 | 771.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 309.43 | 152.10 | 735.73 | -298.64 | 59.67 | 93.18 | 91.39 | 89.63 | 87.91 | 86.22 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 93.18 | 91.39 | 89.63 | 87.91 | 86.22 |
| Tax Rate | -8.81% | 7.03% | 1.85% | 194.75% | -73.76% | 24.21% | 24.21% | 24.21% | 24.21% | 24.21% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 70.62 | 69.26 | 67.93 | 66.63 | 65.35 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -30.87 | 24.32 | -10.73 | -40.32 | 53.65 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Inventories | - | -177.15 | 193.47 | 359.37 | -95.58 | -25.68 | 6.57 | 6.45 | 6.32 | 6.20 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 44.21 | -10.54 | -88.65 | 44.22 | -23.46 | -1.68 | -1.65 | -1.62 | -1.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -285.87 | -299.44 | -326.24 | -92.50 | -80.93 | -143.76 | -141 | -138.29 | -135.64 | -133.03 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -68.63 | -65.63 | -64.37 | -63.13 | -61.92 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -63.29 | -55.82 | -50.49 | -45.67 | -41.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -256.60 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -63.16 |
| Terminal Value | -982.29 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -655.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -911.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -517.94 |
| Equity Value | -394.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 296.63 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1.33 |