Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY)
$36.35
+0.02 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 398.20 | 426.36 | 320.95 | 396.47 | 422.21 | 435.27 | 448.74 | 462.62 | 476.92 | 491.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 23.07 | 25.19 | 20.72 | 64.17 | 53.84 | 41 | 42.27 | 43.58 | 44.92 | 46.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.27 | 3.44 | -8.54 | 34.40 | 24.08 | 11.62 | 11.98 | 12.35 | 12.73 | 13.12 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 19.80 | 21.76 | 29.26 | 29.77 | 29.76 | 29.38 | 30.29 | 31.23 | 32.19 | 33.19 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.20 | 10.07 | 86.82 | 106.62 | 78.03 | 66.90 | 68.97 | 71.10 | 73.30 | 75.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.25 | 1.68 | 2.68 | 2.89 | 2.90 | 3.23 | 3.33 | 3.44 | 3.54 | 3.65 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.54 | 1.66 | 1.45 | 1.68 | 2.07 | 1.86 | 1.92 | 1.98 | 2.04 | 2.10 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.46 | 4.25 | 2.98 | 4.13 | 8.06 | 5.66 | 5.83 | 6.01 | 6.20 | 6.39 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -44.09 | -32.87 | -12.15 | -16.41 | -28.30 | -29.08 | -29.98 | -30.91 | -31.87 | -32.85 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 36.35 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.723 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 18.79 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.827 |
| Total Debt | 196.17 |
| Total Equity | 683.14 |
| Total Capital | 879.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 22.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 77.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 398.20 | 426.36 | 320.95 | 396.47 | 422.21 | 435.27 | 448.74 | 462.62 | 476.92 | 491.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 23.07 | 25.19 | 20.72 | 64.17 | 53.84 | 41 | 42.27 | 43.58 | 44.92 | 46.31 |
| EBIT | 3.27 | 3.44 | -8.54 | 34.40 | 24.08 | 11.62 | 11.98 | 12.35 | 12.73 | 13.12 |
| Tax Rate | -73.91% | -87.54% | 62.57% | 11.92% | 10.14% | -15.36% | -15.36% | -15.36% | -15.36% | -15.36% |
| EBIAT | 5.68 | 6.44 | -3.20 | 30.30 | 21.64 | 13.40 | 13.82 | 14.24 | 14.68 | 15.14 |
| Depreciation | 19.80 | 21.76 | 29.26 | 29.77 | 29.76 | 29.38 | 30.29 | 31.23 | 32.19 | 33.19 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.58 | -1 | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.33 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
| Inventories | - | -0.12 | 0.21 | -0.23 | -0.39 | 0.21 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.21 | -1.28 | 1.15 | 3.93 | -2.40 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | -44.09 | -32.87 | -12.15 | -16.41 | -28.30 | -29.08 | -29.98 | -30.91 | -31.87 | -32.85 |
| UFCF | -18.60 | -4.42 | 11.84 | 44.37 | 26.63 | 11.18 | 14.14 | 14.58 | 15.03 | 15.50 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 10.23 | 11.84 | 11.17 | 10.54 | 9.94 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 53.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15.81 |
| Terminal Value | 217.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 139.30 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 193.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 118.14 |
| Equity Value | 74.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.79 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.98 |