Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CIS.DE)

45.27 €

+0.11 (+0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 42.39 | 45.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 49,33051,90449,30149,81851,55752,168.2452,786.7353,412.5554,045.7954,686.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16,17417,32716,36315,55816,79417,023.9017,225.7317,429.9517,636.6017,845.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,98215,43014,55513,69614,83715,010.3115,188.2715,368.3315,550.5315,734.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,1921,8971,8081,8621,9572,013.592,037.472,061.622,086.062,110.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 46,54833,41329,41924,51819,26731,821.8732,199.1332,580.8832,967.1433,357.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10,50310,58610,52310,14610,52710,831.7310,960.1511,090.0911,221.5711,354.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8461,3831,2821,5592,5681,785.961,807.131,828.561,850.241,872.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,9042,0592,2182,3622,2812,242.302,268.882,295.782,3232,350.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -834-909-770-692-477-763.54-772.59-781.75-791.02-800.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 45.27
Beta 0.966
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,192
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.091
Total Debt 9,515
Total Equity 189,771.84
Total Capital 199,286.84
Debt Weighting 4.77
Equity Weighting 95.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 49,33051,90449,30149,81851,55752,168.2452,786.7353,412.5554,045.7954,686.54
EBITDA 16,17417,32716,36315,55816,79417,023.9017,225.7317,429.9517,636.6017,845.69
EBIT 13,98215,43014,55513,69614,83715,010.3115,188.2715,368.3315,550.5315,734.90
Tax Rate 99.16%20.25%19.73%20.14%18.41%35.54%35.54%35.54%35.54%35.54%
EBIAT 117.9612,306.0911,683.5910,937.5912,105.739,676.289,7919,907.0810,024.5310,143.38
Depreciation 2,1921,8971,8081,8621,9572,013.592,037.472,061.622,086.062,110.80
Accounts Receivable --8363377-381-304.73-128.42-129.94-131.48-133.04
Inventories -463101-277-1,009782.04-21.17-21.42-21.68-21.94
Accounts Payable -155159144-81-38.7026.5826.9027.2227.54
Capital Expenditure -834-909-770-692-477-763.54-772.59-781.75-791.02-800.40
UFCF 1,475.9613,829.0913,044.5912,351.5912,114.7311,364.9410,932.8711,062.4811,193.6411,326.34
WACC
PV UFCF 10,537.739,399.268,818.458,273.537,762.27
SUM PV UFCF 44,791.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,552.87
Terminal Value 197,484.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 135,342.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 180,133.47
Net Debt 2,436
Equity Value 177,697.47
Shares Outstanding 4,192
Equity Value Per Share 42.39