Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CIS.DE)

45.27 €

+0.11 (+0.24%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 42.39 | 45.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	49,330	51,904	49,301	49,818	51,557	52,168.24	52,786.73	53,412.55	54,045.79	54,686.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	16,174	17,327	16,363	15,558	16,794	17,023.90	17,225.73	17,429.95	17,636.60	17,845.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	13,982	15,430	14,555	13,696	14,837	15,010.31	15,188.27	15,368.33	15,550.53	15,734.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,192	1,897	1,808	1,862	1,957	2,013.59	2,037.47	2,061.62	2,086.06	2,110.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	46,548	33,413	29,419	24,518	19,267	31,821.87	32,199.13	32,580.88	32,967.14	33,357.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	10,503	10,586	10,523	10,146	10,527	10,831.73	10,960.15	11,090.09	11,221.57	11,354.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,846	1,383	1,282	1,559	2,568	1,785.96	1,807.13	1,828.56	1,850.24	1,872.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,904	2,059	2,218	2,362	2,281	2,242.30	2,268.88	2,295.78	2,323	2,350.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-834	-909	-770	-692	-477	-763.54	-772.59	-781.75	-791.02	-800.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 45.27
Beta	0.966
Diluted Shares Outstanding	4,192
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.41
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.091
Total Debt	9,515
Total Equity	189,771.84
Total Capital	199,286.84
Debt Weighting	4.77
Equity Weighting	95.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	49,330	51,904	49,301	49,818	51,557	52,168.24	52,786.73	53,412.55	54,045.79	54,686.54
EBITDA	16,174	17,327	16,363	15,558	16,794	17,023.90	17,225.73	17,429.95	17,636.60	17,845.69
EBIT	13,982	15,430	14,555	13,696	14,837	15,010.31	15,188.27	15,368.33	15,550.53	15,734.90
Tax Rate	99.16%	20.25%	19.73%	20.14%	18.41%	35.54%	35.54%	35.54%	35.54%	35.54%
EBIAT	117.96	12,306.09	11,683.59	10,937.59	12,105.73	9,676.28	9,791	9,907.08	10,024.53	10,143.38
Depreciation	2,192	1,897	1,808	1,862	1,957	2,013.59	2,037.47	2,061.62	2,086.06	2,110.80
Accounts Receivable	-	-83	63	377	-381	-304.73	-128.42	-129.94	-131.48	-133.04
Inventories	-	463	101	-277	-1,009	782.04	-21.17	-21.42	-21.68	-21.94
Accounts Payable	-	155	159	144	-81	-38.70	26.58	26.90	27.22	27.54
Capital Expenditure	-834	-909	-770	-692	-477	-763.54	-772.59	-781.75	-791.02	-800.40
UFCF	1,475.96	13,829.09	13,044.59	12,351.59	12,114.73	11,364.94	10,932.87	11,062.48	11,193.64	11,326.34
WACC
PV UFCF						10,537.73	9,399.26	8,818.45	8,273.53	7,762.27
SUM PV UFCF										44,791.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	11,552.87
Terminal Value	197,484.97
Present Value of Terminal Value	135,342.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	180,133.47
Net Debt	2,436
Equity Value	177,697.47
Shares Outstanding	4,192
Equity Value Per Share	42.39