Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cargojet Inc. (CJT.TO)

$111.74

-0.08 (-0.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -153.42 | 111.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 382.90454.90486.60668.50757.80902.751,075.431,281.141,526.201,818.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 108.50122.70158.40104.90355.40271.64323.60385.50459.24547.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 58.8056.6064.40-4.20231.70128.16152.67181.87216.66258.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 49.7066.1094109.10123.70143.49170.93203.63242.58288.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5.706.777.249.9511.2813.4416.0119.0722.7227.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 40.2065.3051.4041.4075.3093.07110.87132.08157.34187.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.901.602.301.502.202.843.394.034.805.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 29.5035.8045.6066.9071.7080.1995.53113.80135.57161.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -135.70-186.70-218.10-146.60-277.60-324.75-386.87-460.87-549.02-654.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 111.74
Beta 0.750
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.294
Total Debt 398.60
Total Equity 1,743.14
Total Capital 2,141.74
Debt Weighting 18.61
Equity Weighting 81.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 382.90454.90486.60668.50757.80902.751,075.431,281.141,526.201,818.14
EBITDA 108.50122.70158.40104.90355.40271.64323.60385.50459.24547.09
EBIT 58.8056.6064.40-4.20231.70128.16152.67181.87216.66258.10
Tax Rate 29.46%31.06%44.23%-100.46%16.63%4.19%4.19%4.19%4.19%4.19%
EBIAT 41.4839.0235.92-8.42193.16122.79146.28174.26207.59247.30
Depreciation 49.7066.1094109.10123.70143.49170.93203.63242.58288.98
Accounts Receivable --25.1013.9010-33.90-17.77-17.80-21.21-25.26-30.10
Inventories --0.70-0.700.80-0.70-0.64-0.54-0.65-0.77-0.92
Accounts Payable -6.309.8021.304.808.4915.3418.2721.7725.93
Capital Expenditure -135.70-186.70-218.10-146.60-277.60-324.75-386.87-460.87-549.02-654.04
UFCF -44.53-101.08-65.18-13.829.46-68.39-72.66-86.56-103.12-122.84
WACC
PV UFCF -63.83-63.30-70.38-78.26-87.01
SUM PV UFCF -362.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) -125.30
Terminal Value -2,437.69
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,726.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,089.49
Net Debt 303.90
Equity Value -2,393.39
Shares Outstanding 15.60
Equity Value Per Share -153.42